Over the past week in Syria, as you all likely noticed, Syrian rebels, opponents of Assad’s regime, launched a massive ground blitz, capturing Aleppo province within days, completing their takeover of Idlib province, and preparing to move on Hama – unless something unexpected happens.
So, what are the implications for Israel?
We’ll start with the basics. Take a look at the attached map highlighting what’s called “the Shia Crescent,” stretching from Iran to Lebanon—a continuous land corridor of states loyal to Iran and its interests. Syria is the main and central link in this chain on the way to Lebanon, and it also shares a land border with Israel.
Iran identified this strategic potential long ago and exploited President Bashar al-Assad’s weakness during Syria’s civil war, which began in 2011, to deepen its presence and essentially take over the country and its governance. Iran, with Russia’s help, saved Assad’s regime, which was on the brink of a humiliating defeat against his opponents in 2015-2016.
Since then, Iran has treated Syria as its backyard: placing loyal militias along Israel’s Golan border, transporting weapons to Hezbollah via land, and, as revealed in videos from Syrian army labs in al-Safirah, even controlling Syria’s weapons production.
Syria is the central and most critical land link in Iran’s plan to encircle Israel with direct threats from the north and east. Without Syria, the Shiite Crescent is severed, leaving Lebanon isolated. Without Syria, Hezbollah loses its vital land supply line.
If there’s one group the Sunni Syrian rebels hate more than anyone, it’s the Shiites. Beyond centuries-old religious animosities, the Sunni rebels have a fresh score to settle from the past decade with the Shiite Axis – Iran, Hezbollah, and Shiite militias – for atrocities committed during the Syrian civil war.
Now, it’s time for revenge, which is burning strongly in the rebels’ veins.
If the Sunni rebels succeed in expelling the Shiites from Syria, the Shiite Crescent will be broken – something beneficial from Israel’s perspective. This could hinder Hezbollah’s recovery, especially if the rebels take control of the Homs area, which borders Lebanon and lies south of Hama, the rebels’ next objective.
Are the Syrian Rebels Pro-Israel?
Not at all.
But right now, they hate the Iranians and Shiites more than they hate Israel – and that’s enough for us for the time being.
As they advance, we’ll reassess the implications…
