“You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.” – Rahm Emanuel
Emanuel was Chief of Staff for Barack Obama in 2009-10, and his maxim hasn’t been forgotten by the former Obama administration staffers who are making US policy toward Israel and the Middle East today. They have passionately embraced it as Israel faces what is probably her greatest crisis since 1973 (arguably 1948), in which she has been attacked simultaneously from seven fronts: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Judea/Samaria, Yemen, Iran, and Iraq.
Since the traumatic massacre and hostage-taking of 7 October 2023, the Americans have attempted to bend the arc of events toward the goals set out in Obama’s Cairo speech in 2009 and the Baker/Hamilton report of 2006: a unified Palestinian state in Judea, Samaria, and Gaza; the re-division of Jerusalem, the return of the Golan Heights to Syria, and the elevation of Iran to the role of regional hegemon.
The publicly-stated objective of this exercise is to bring peace to the region by ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and placing Iran in the role of policeman to suppress the extremist Sunni forces in Iraq and Syria that express themselves in the form of ISIS (for example). This will theoretically enable the US to disengage from the region, immunize herself from terrorism emanating from it, and turn her attention toward her true rival, China.
It’s not clear if the authors of this doctrine, particularly Ben Rhodes, a co-author of the Iraq Study Group report and the writer of Obama’s Cairo speech, intend that a byproduct of it would be to greatly empower the enemies of Israel and even bring about the end of the Jewish state. But either they don’t understand that the tribal and religious aspirations of the Palestinian Arabs will never be assuaged by the possession of only part of what they believe is their birthright, or they do understand and fully support them. Similarly, they either fail to take seriously or approve of Iran’s stated desire to “wipe Israel off the map.”
From a strictly American point of view, the policy is defective and dangerous. The theocratic and oppressive Iranian regime is not kidding when it displays banners calling for “Death to America,” the “Great Satan.” The Obama/Rhodes plan which legitimizes Iran becoming a nuclear-armed power – something that is expected at any moment – could not be more irresponsible, especially considering the penetration of Iran’s terrorist proxy organization Hezbollah into South and Central America and the open southern border of the US.
Nevertheless, the Biden/Harris administration seems to have embraced this policy, and its actions in response to Israel’s crisis since 7 October bear that out. US intelligence agencies are aware that Hamas’ claims of disproportionate civilian casualties in Gaza are false. However US officials, sometimes including the president, continue to take them at face value in their public statements, and have used this as an excuse to hold up the delivery of weapons to Israel. Despite statements to the contrary, it’s not just 2000 pound bombs that are being withheld, but numerous items – including JDAM kits, needed to convert ‘dumb’ bombs to munitions that can be precisely targeted. Clearly, if the motivation were to reduce collateral damage, then the delivery of JDAMs would be expedited, not delayed.
But 2000-pound bombs with JDAM kits would be especially useful if Israel chose to attack the Iranian nuclear facilities. And other weapons and systems that would be critical to that mission have also been delayed. For example, KC-46A air tankers, which would be used to refuel planes on their way to Iran, were contracted for in 2020, but after several delays are now expected in May 2025.
Since 7 October the US administration has been pressuring Israel to adopt a “day after” plan that places a “reformed” Palestinian Authority in charge of Gaza. The administration prevented the IDF from entering Rafiah for several weeks, claiming that it would take four months to remove the civilian population to safety; this was ultimately accomplished in two weeks. Control of Rafiah, which is located on the border between Gaza and Egypt, is essential to cut off the flow of weapons and supplies to Hamas. It has also been falsely claimed that Israel is preventing the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, that there is widespread starvation, and so on. These accusations have been used to gain leverage to force Israel to accept a cease-fire deal that would allow some of the hostages held by Hamas to go home, but would make it impossible for Israel to control the governance of Gaza, and which would result in Hamas reconstituting its military and civil apparatus. In essence, the deal the US wants is our surrender.
The US believes, correctly, that Israel’s PM, Binyamin Netanyahu, is an obstacle to the attainment of their objectives, both in the Israeli-Palestinian arena and toward Iran. Netanyahu has insisted that Israel retain security control of Gaza for at least a time after the war; that means control of the border between Gaza and Egypt, the “Netzarim Corridor” that divides the northern and southern parts of the Strip, and a 1 km wide security zone along the border between Gaza and Israel. Hamas will not accept these terms, and so the Americans and Netanyahu’s domestic opponents blame him for the lack of a deal.
The Obama/Rhodes circle that is calling the shots in the US has had a personal animus against Netanyahu since the beginning of the Obama administration, which was exacerbated when he spoke against the Iran nuclear deal to a joint session of the US Congress in 2015. Since then it has supported his political opponents in multiple ways.
More recently, the Biden/Harris administration has begun a campaign of placing economic sanctions on Israelis (some of whom are American citizens and some who are not) for participation in or support of alleged mistreatment of Palestinians. As Michael Doran explains, the purpose is to “create a climate of controversy around Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition partners.” Sanctions can apply to any entity that does business with a sanctioned individual, so even if he or she has no assets in the US, a target can be cut off from employment or their Israeli bank account. The punishment of Israeli nationals by a foreign power without due process is an abuse of our sovereignty, and the international imposition of sanctions on ordinary citizens is unprecedented.
As we await a coordinated attack from Iran, Hezbollah, and perhaps the Houthis in Yemen, the terrorists of Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the PA, and the Iranian-controlled militias in Iraq and Syria, ten months after the most murderous attack on Jews since the Holocaust, and after ten months of outrageous lies and antisemitic vilification by international institutions and the world media, we wonder if we really have an ally in the US, or something else.
In April of this year, Iran launched hundreds of drones and ballistic and cruise missiles at Israel. With the help of the US and a few other countries and the expenditure of a billion dollars in defensive operations, Israel destroyed most of them. But the intent behind those tons of explosives thrown at us was murderous. The response from Israel should have been painful enough to ensure that the Iranian regime would never dare try it again. Instead, we were told by the Americans that if we want their support, only a symbolic gesture would be permitted. So we bombed a radar station. And now here we are again.
The whole thing seems orchestrated. The US has sent forces to the region, in part to protect us, but also to ensure that everything goes according to plan. Iran will be allowed to attack and hurt us enough to cause us to sign on the dotted line for a general cease-fire, one that will lead to the Palestinian state that the Americans want so badly. We will be allowed to hit back – symbolically. We will especially not be allowed to hit Iranian nuclear installations. Netanyahu, hated by the Left, will now lose any support he has from the Right.
Biden/Harris will say they have brought peace to the Middle East. But Israel will face a resurgent Hamas, a Hezbollah more dangerous than ever, a terror state next door to Tel Aviv, and a nuclear Iran. This is a recipe for even more war, and it’s not at all clear that we can continue to prevail.
{Reposted from the author’s blog}
