In recent days during a Shiite religious event in the city of Ardabil, located in the Azerbaijani province of Iran, harsh words were directed at Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The event was attended by Ayatollah Sayyed Hassan Ameli, a representative of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Ardabil. The Ardabil event—the first of its kind in the Islamic Republic’s history—commemorated the “martyrs of the Battle of Chaldiran” in 1514. The battle between Iran’s Safavid Shia Empire and the Sunni Ottoman Empire ended in an Ottoman victory.
In this event, Gholamreza Gholizadeh, a lay Shia eulogist, referred to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as “bastards” and “consumers of illegitimately acquired food.” Gholizadeh also declared that Iran would reclaim its former territories in the Caucasus—lost during the Russo-Persian Wars (1651-1828)—and raise the Shia flag there, Iran International, an Iranian dissident website, reported. The speech also included insults towards Sunnis. This is not the first time Ayatollah Ameli’s name has been associated with populist and inflammatory statements against Azerbaijan from the Iranian side.
In one of his sermons in the past, Ayatollah Ameli advised Azerbaijan “not to play with the lion’s tail,” referring, of course, to Iran as the lion. Since Ayatollah Ameli is not a private man, his views and statements could reflect Iran’s true stance. Moreover, this religious event was broadcast live on Iran’s official news network, which further raises suspicions regarding Iran’s responsibility for the harsh words of Gholizadeh.
Azerbaijan’s response came quickly. Sayyed Jafar Agai Merian, Iran’s affairs attaché in Azerbaijan, was summoned to the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, where it was made clear that Azerbaijan demands an end to such provocations. The last time Azerbaijan officially summoned the Iranian representative for a reprimand was after the terrorist attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran.
Additionally, President Ilham Aliyev was interviewed by the Azerbaijani media regarding Iran-Azerbaijan relations. He claimed that the terrorist attack on Azerbaijan’s embassy in Iran in April 2023 was ordered by Iranian authorities: “Firstly, for about 40 minutes, no police car arrived at the scene, despite it happening in the center of the capital. The next day, the terrorist was immediately declared mentally ill, even though any medical examination takes several days. That same day, the individual who committed the attack gave an interview to the media. Two years have passed since the incident, and to this day, the verdict against this person has not been executed. All this suggests that it was organized,” emphasized the President.
When President Aliyev addressed Ayatollah Ameli’s presence at the event, he asked: “What does the one who appointed him to this position think about the offensive remarks made by this provincial mullah?” Of course, Aliyev was referring to whether Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stands behind Gholizadeh’s slanderous words. Aliyev argued that Iran saw Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia in Karabakh as a personal loss in the conflict and has therefore hardened its stance toward Azerbaijan. On January 7th, he called for a public apology from Iran, which will likely not happen and may lead to another crisis in the relations between the two countries.
Beyond the Iran-Azerbaijan relationship, Iran has suffered a major blow recently following the fall of Assad’s regime in Syria. The Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has replaced the Alawite dynasty, and it maintains close ties with Turkey, a country that is not on good terms with Iran. Assad’s downfall, combined with the heavy blows Hezbollah received from Israel during Operation Swords of Iron, which nearly caused the Lebanese terror organization to collapse, has led Iran to lose its “Shia Crescent.”
The “Shia Crescent” refers to the territorial corridor connecting Iran, Iraq, Assad’s Syria, and Hezbollah in Lebanon, all under Iran’s leadership. Iran has lost its land access to the Mediterranean Sea and has become more vulnerable. Iran had managed to keep its military conflicts off its own soil, but now, in the current situation, it is losing that advantage, while Turkey has gained influence in Syria and Iraq, positioning itself as the main mediator between the U.S., Gulf countries, and the new Syria.
Tehran fears that Ankara will manage to replicate this success in other strategic areas, such as the Caucasus, which is geographically much closer to Iran than Syria or Lebanon. A true and painful Iranian defeat would be if Azerbaijan takes control of the Zangezur corridor, thereby blocking Iran’s territorial link with Armenia.
