The Abraham Accords, which were signed in 2020, began as normalization agreements between the State of Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the Kingdom of Bahrain. Subsequently, other countries such as Morocco and Sudan, joined the Accords, turning the Abraham Accords into a network of alliances that only aims to grow and expand. There is one country among all the Muslim nations in the Middle East and beyond that fits perfectly with the American and Israeli vision, and that is Azerbaijan. From any angle we examine the country, located in the South Caucasus, it is clear that no other country is more suited to join the Abraham Accords, and none could better help fulfill the strategic vision of both the Americans and the Israelis.
Let’s start with the obvious. Azerbaijan has been a close ally of Israel for over 30 years, during which the two countries have cooperated on a variety of issues and fields, with the most prominent being defense against Iran. Both countries view Iran as an existential threat, and they share the interest of weakening Iran’s military and political power. Since numerous collaborations already exist between Israel and Azerbaijan, and the momentous opening of the Azerbaijani embassy in Tel Aviv has already occurred, the question should be, “Why hasn’t Azerbaijan been included in the Abraham Accords yet?” rather than “Should Azerbaijan be included in the Abraham Accords?”
However, beyond the obvious, there are many other reasons to officially integrate Azerbaijan into the Israeli-American alliance with the Arab and Muslim states. Azerbaijan is one of Israeli defense industries’ largest and most longstanding customers. These deals, worth billions of dollars, not only support the livelihoods of many Israelis in the defense sector but also fund the development of military technologies essential for Israel’s own security.
This defense collaboration indicates deep mutual trust and a shared commitment to security interests, so it can be said that extending the cooperation with Azerbaijan can only benefit Israel. Azerbaijan is much more than just another adversary of Iran for Israel; it also has much to offer in terms of further cooperation with Israel. Including Azerbaijan in the Abraham Accords would also be beneficial for Azerbaijan. Including Azerbaijan in the “Abraham Accords Club” would grant it recognition and support from the United States and Israel and open the door to more extensive economic and security cooperation. Countries that have signed these agreements have received significant benefits, and it would be illogical for Azerbaijan, a longstanding strategic partner, to remain outside of this framework.
Azerbaijan’s greatest potential, in the eyes of the Americans, is probably its geographical location, between Iran and Russia. Both Iran and Russia, in recent years and overall, have acted against the interests of the Western world. Iran threatens the relative peace in the Middle East with the nuclear reactor it is building, while Russia is involved in the war in Ukraine and is hostile toward NATO. Russia and Iran cooperate, in part, because of their common enemy, the United States, and also because both are subject to Western sanctions that limit their trade. Russia has become dependent on other countries in the former Soviet bloc to export goods to Iran and other Middle Eastern countries, which only increases Azerbaijan’s importance in the eyes of Russia.
If you think about it deeply, it is hard to believe that Azerbaijan, a country located between the two most anti-Western powers of our time, would stand firm against their pressures and not become an Iranian or Russian proxy. The United States and Israel can only benefit from such a loyal ally, which can provide them with reliable intelligence about Iran and Russia. Furthermore, thanks to Azerbaijan, Israel will be able to act against Iran using the methods it has used for years. Iran has been waging a hybrid war against Israel for years, meaning a comprehensive war on all fronts and in every possible domain. Through cooperation with Azerbaijan, Israel will be able to act in the South Caucasus region according to its interests and, in doing so, undermine Iran’s interests.
The most crucial area where the United States and Israel would want to cooperate with Azerbaijan is, of course, defense alliances within the framework of the Abraham Accords countries. Azerbaijan’s geographical location, bordering Iran to the northwest, completes a half-ring around Iran that can serve military purposes. First, if and when Iran decides to attack Israel from its territory (and it will likely come from the western region of Iran, which is closer to Israel), the Gulf states (Bahrain and the UAE) would be able to intercept missiles launched from the southern part of Iran, while Azerbaijan could intercept missiles fired from the northern region of Iran.
In the case of an attack on Azerbaijan, the UAE, or Bahrain, Israel may not be able to intercept the missiles before they reach their targets, but it could sell its technological advancements to Abraham Accords nations, which would help them. However, as everyone knows, “a good offense is the best defense,” so those countries surrounding half of Iran could launch artillery or airstrikes anywhere in the country. Just the threat of a combined strike from Azerbaijan, the UAE, Bahrain, and Israel could cripple any offensive move by Iran due to the fear of missile strikes throughout the country. And if, God forbid, we reach a real situation of fighting with Iran, it will already be surrounded from the very first moment.
For the United States, this situation is excellent. If Israel cooperates militarily with the UAE and Azerbaijan in a military, intelligence, and economic capacity against Iran, much of the burden will be lifted from the Americans. The Emirati and Bahraini money, combined with Israeli innovations and the geopolitical advantages of Azerbaijan, would reduce the dependence on U.S. defense, at least in normal times. These allies will be able to manage without the U.S., and the United States can focus its time and money on other areas. We must hope that the day when Azerbaijan joins the Abraham Accords, it will come as soon as possible for the benefit of Israel, Azerbaijan, and the United States.
