It has been four days since Iran has publicly threatened to attack Israel.
They are claiming, laughably, that this is their right under the UN Charter as “self defense.” It isn’t. Self defense must be in response to an armed attack on the state, which Haniyeh’s assassination was not – not a single Iranian was even hurt. Sefl defense has to be against an ongoing threat, and there is no ongoing threat from Israel unless Iran attacks. Reprisals and vengeance are not self-defense in international law.
By any reasonable standard, Iran is threatening to violate international law.
Yet not one nation, not one UN agency, not the EU, not one NGO that I can find, has condemned Iran for threatening to attack another UN member state. I can only find one weak statement calling on all parties, particularly Iran, to show restraint – but that is far from a condemnation for a direct threat on a state.
And it isn’t like no one believes Iran will attack. Everyone fully expects Iran and its proxies to attack.
And they remain silent.
The same thing happened in April. Only after Iran organized a large attack on Israel from multiple directions – that everyone was expecting – were there condemnations. But not a word beforehand.
G7 leaders said at that time, “We express our full solidarity and support to Israel and its people and reaffirm our commitment towards its security.”
A US led joint statement of UN reps said “We note that Iran’s escalatory attack is the latest in a pattern of dangerous and destabilizing actions by Iran and its militant partners that pose a grave threat to international peace and security.”
So why are they silent now?
The April post-facto condemnations, in retrospect, look like window dressing. After all, if they are serious about stopping escalation, they should tell Iran now, directly and publicly, that there will be consequences for such an attack.
Retired US Naval intelligence officer J. E. Dyer lists several specific things that could be done by the West, today, to deter Iran. Some of them:
– Destroy the Houthi ability to use weapons and encourage an agreement in Yemen that would stop them from having an independent military ability. The West needs to do this anyway to protect shipping lanes.
– “Take on the Hezbollah arsenal in Lebanon by addressing it through the government in Beirut. Twist arms without apology or tentativeness in the approach. Make it clear that the most prominent and freest-spending of Beirut’s foreign patrons wants that arsenal whittled down to nothing, and isn’t taking no for an answer. “
– Sinking all of Iran’s converted container ships that have been used to directly support the Houthis with intelligence and missiles.
– Eliminating the Tee Jetty, Sea Island, and petrochemical piers that support Iran’s key oil export facility at Kharg Island, as a warning. If Iran continues its belligerence, take out Kharg Island itself.
– Put bite back in sanctions of Iran.
A serious US, and a serious world, would be implementing these things now, not wait for a war between Israel and Iran.
But no one is talking about this. Probably, in this current lame and dementia-ridden White House, no one is even capable to making such a decision.
Instead, the US is pledging to help defend Israel. That’s great and necessary, but it does not deter Iran – on the contrary, without deterrence and support for Israel to take the initiative, it encourages Iran to keep coming up with new and unconventional ways to attack Israel that US warplanes and anti-missile batteries cannot counter.
Notably, Iran’s Supreme Leader recently pinned an October 3 tweet where he said “the Zionist regime is about to go.” Iran knew about the upcoming October 7 attacks, and may have helped plan them. Considering only a similar response as April from Iran is a mistake – Iranians are far more creative than Israel’s Arab enemies, and can think of surprising methods (like the Houthi drone to Tel Aviv that came from the west.)
Wars cannot be won on defense alone, and Iran is constantly on the offensive against Israel, mostly via proxies that they proudly admit are part of their “axis of resistance.” There are few independent initiatives from the Houthis, Hezbollah and Hamas. For all we know they are planning an October 7 type massacre from the West Bank or from Lebanon. How would the US help?
Telling Israel that operations like killing Haniyeh are not helpful is not supporting Israel. It is encouraging Iranian aggression.
Without serious deterrence from the West towards Iran, in the face of a planned imminent attack, Israel is alone. No amount of pledges of “ironclad” support can change that. (The rumored Tisha B’Av date might not be true – Iran’s claim of self-defense requires an element of “immediacy” under customary interpretations of international law.)
The silence, and inaction, in response to a direct Iranian threat to attack Israel speaks far louder than their pro-forma statements in April did.
{Reposted from EoZ}
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