American Jews have long favored Democrats in presidential elections. The best showings that Republican candidates have had since World War II among Jews was 40% (Eisenhower 1956), 39% (Reagan 1980) and 36% (Eisenhower 1952). Since the 1992 election, Democrats have sailed to clear majorities with between 68% and 80% of the Jewish vote for president. On average, 71% of Jewish voters chose Democratic candidates and 26% chose Republicans since 1968.
Historians consider that Jews aligned themselves with Democrats as it was considered the party of working class immigrants, just as the Jews were coming to the country from Europe and the USSR in the first half of the 20th century. As Jews became more established in America, and the Second Vatican Council of 1965 pushed antisemitism out of the Catholic doctrine, Jews sought candidates which had greater support for their economic and religious (Judeo-Christian) interests between 1972 and 1988 and began to vote for Republicans more frequently. Bill Clinton’s popularity helped bring Jews back overwhelmingly to the Democrats but that faded as Democratic candidates emerged from left-wing states of Illinois, New York, and Massachusetts.
The majority of Jews still live in liberal states including New York, California, New Jersey, but many now reside in conservative Florida and moderate Pennsylvania. Overall, Jews are moving away from the Northeast (from 63% in 1971 to 40% in 2020) to the South (12% in 1971 to 25% in 2020) according to Brandeis. They are going for the sun and lower taxes to live with more conservative neighbors.
This 2024 election may yield a breakthrough of Jews voting for the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump. No Republican candidate crossed the 30% of Jewish vote threshold since George HW Bush in 1988 collected 35% of the Jewish vote. Trump’s share of the Jewish vote jumped from 24% in 2016 to 30% in 2020.
And it is likely to be higher in 2024.
His opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris comes from California, a radical liberal state, and she had a voting record among the most liberal in the country while she served as senator. Moreso, fellow leading Democrats like Sen. Chuck Schumer have shown no interest in combatting the alarming level of antisemitism in the country over the past year, and the “woke” fringe of the party has grown and shown itself to have alarming levels of antisemitism.
If Trump pulls over 30% of the Jewish vote – particularly in Pennsylvania (where the Jewish population is about 430,000 or 3.3% of the state), Georgia (140,000; 1.3%) and Michigan (87,000, 0.9%) – it might prove to be the tipping point to help Trump win the electoral college.
The trend of Jews voting more Republican is likely to continue into the future. Orthodox Jews are currently the only denomination to vote Republican (75% according to Pew) and they have much higher fertility rates than the non-Orthodox streams. Orthodox Jews made up roughly 12% of American Jewry in 2021, which is expected to grow to 29% by 2063 according to a study by Yale. That will likely yield a more conservative voter base for the Republican party.
The media is focused on the Israeli record of Trump and Biden-Harris in their analysis of how Jews will vote, and it is a factor amid the Iranian proxy-Israel war. But so is the growing segment of Jews who do not want to see economic interests and religion trampled by liberal laws, nor suffer overt (physical attacks and harassment) and covert (DEI mandates) discrimination.
Related articles:
The Most Important Congressional Races For Your Engagement (September 2024)
‘Tis The Season To Vote And Donate Jewish (April 2024)
Biden Counts Votes, As He Pushes For Non-Orthodox Jews And Against Orthodox Jews In Jerusalem (April 2023)
Liberals Blame Orthodox Jews’ Unfounded Fear For Loss of Congress (November 2022)
An Orthodox Rabbi at the Capitol (January 2017)
{Reposted from the author’s blog}
