On Oct 7, 2023, thousands of Hamas terrorists invaded Israel. Their mission was to wipe out the Jewish population in the nearby towns, secure them and use them as forward operating bases for the next phase of the war. While the atrocities they committed in that initial assault, entire families burned alive in their homes, women raped and kidnapped, and babies killed, made it look like a terrorist attack on a large scale, Oct 7 had not been meant as a hit-and-run operation.
Hamas had risked too much and put too many men in the field for it to be anything other than an invasion. Its plans to continue advancing into Israel appear unrealistic only out of context.
The thousands of terrorists from Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Fatah had been meant as the tip of a larger spear. Thousands of Hezbollah and allied terrorists had been in position on Oct 7. Had Hamas been able to hang on to Israeli territory, they would have invaded the Galilee, but after the initial shock and long delays throughout that first day, the Israeli military regrouped.
The Hezbollah invasion was postponed until it was briefly revived by the Islamic terror group around the time of the pager attacks and then shut down by targeted Israeli strikes.
Oct 7 had been Hezbollah’s plan before it was executed by Hamas. Hezbollah had even spent years boasting about using its network of tunnels to invade and conquer the Galilee, but the funding and plans had come out of Tehran. Yet when push came to shove, Hezbollah hesitated.
Iran had planned for an Oct 7 that would have dealt a catastrophic blow to Israel. The original plot would have seen coordinated Hamas and Hezbollah invasions backed by heavy rocket campaigns not only by Hezbollah, but by the Houthis in Yemen and Iran’s militias in Iraq targeting Israeli bases, military assets and infrastructure. Terror groups in the West Bank would have launched their own assaults creating a multi-front guerrilla war deep inside Israel. Even if Israel had beaten back the attacks, many of the Jewish communities would have been in ashes.
And seeing Israel’s weakness, hostile Muslim major military forces from Egypt and Turkey might well have joined in leading to a conflict more on the scale of another Yom Kippur War.
The death toll would not have been over 1,000, but in the tens of thousands at the very least, and perhaps, unimaginably, even more than that on the scale of another Holocaust.
Iran had planned to break Israel on the final day of the Jewish High Holy Days. And to also break the United States with it by taking out a key American coalition partner in the region.
The Biden-Harris administration had overseen the two treacherous deals with Hamas and Hezbollah. The Israeli–Lebanese maritime deal had turned over parts of Israel’s gas field to Hezbollah’s puppet regime in Beirut and an ‘understanding’ had moved Qatari money to Hamas.
Both deals had been meant to assure quiet with Israel. And for a little bit they seemed to work.
The Biden-Harris administration’s diplomacy however had been subverted by Iranian and other enemy agents. The deals did not assure an end to the fighting, but a planned campaign against Israel timed ahead of Iran’s nuclear breakout and the upcoming presidential election.
The Iranian campaign however fell apart early due to bloodlust, scheming and cowardice.
The Iranian plan to take out Israel’s defenses and communications worked. The Israeli army and air force wasted precious hours figuring out what was going on and how to respond. But Hamas had drugged its terrorists with Hezbollah’s ‘captagon’ amphetamines. Whether it was the drug or their religion, the terrorists spent too much time glorying in their brutality, including the attack on the Nova festival, to execute the next part of their mission and secure a foothold.
After some initial battles against outnumbered Israeli forces, the tide turned once the Israelis finally understood the scale of the attack they were dealing with. And Hamas was demolished.
The original plan to link up with elements in the West Bank was sidelined for the Hamas goal of displacing the Palestinian Authority and so it did not risk coordinating with anyone there. By the time anyone in the West Bank had a sense of what was going on, Hamas had already lost.
Iran had made sure that Hezbollah was ready and waiting on the border, but the Islamic terror group had already spent years taking a beating for Tehran in the Syrian Civil War. Nasrallah and the Hezbollah leadership had secured control over Lebanon and did not want to risk it in an operation that would decimate the terror group if Hamas could not deliver on Oct 7.
When Hamas failed to hold up its end, Hezbollah did not invade, but began a running war with Israel as prep for a potential invasion. Israel targeted Hezbollah positions while the Islamic terror group depopulated parts of northern Israel. Hezbollah was giving its Iranian bosses some of what they wanted without actually committing to a full scale war with the Jewish State.
The Biden-Harris administration’s ceasefire agenda and rallies inside Israel for a hostage deal at any cost kept the Hezbollah campaign alive by transforming an invasion prep campaign into a pressure campaign to spare Hamas. Hezbollah would have likely stepped down once it was clear that Hamas had lost, if talk of a deal had not provided a lifeline to the terror group.
Hezbollah miscalculated that Israel was too weakened by Oct 7 and its engagement in Gaza to respond. It gloated over worried headlines in the Israeli media about its massive stockpile of rockets. Nasrallah and the Hezbollah leadership became convinced Israel was terrified of it.
But as Israel’s large-scale confrontations with Hamas wound down and Hezbollah’s attacks escalated, the war shifted over to Lebanon. In the year of fighting, Hamas had become too small to present a useful target for large scale military operations. The Israeli campaign in Gaza had fractured the Hamas terrorist operations back down to the cell structure where terrorist groups first begin. Hezbollah however was just the right size to take on. And it was thoroughly bugged.
Israel’s campaign struck shattering blows to the morale of Iran’s Islamic terror coalition.
Iran’s ballistic missile attacks on Israel were not a sign of strength, but of weakness. Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran’s local proxies, had become too weakened to do the job. The Houthis and Iraqi militias can contribute something to the attacks on Israel, but not nearly enough. What initially looked like a solid projection of force by an Iranian Shiite coalition is falling apart into chaos.
But the collapse really began on Oct 7 when Hamas faltered and Hezbollah did not invade. Hamas proved unable to control its urge to kill Jews long enough to secure military objectives. Hezbollah was unwilling to put everything on the line for Hamas. Iran was happy to see Hamas and Hezbollah bleed, but unwilling to take any major risks until they had delivered real results. Iran had exploited Hamas and Hezbollah, and Hezbollah had sold out Hamas on Oct 7.
And the result was that what was meant to be another Holocaust failed.
Many Israelis suffered unimaginably on Oct 7. Mothers were killed in front of children. Pregnant women were butchered. Families were burned alive in their homes. But Israel is still here.
And it’s winning.
It’s winning despite European arms embargoes and threats from the Biden-Harris administration. It’s winning because Israel knows there is no alternative to victory.
Oct 7 shattered the complacency some Israelis had developed about their situation. The months since have made it clear that no amount of deals are a substitute for security. Threats as a deterrent cease to provide any leverage when the enemy stops fearing they will be carried out.
A year later, Israel is battered, but Israelis can envision a future in which they will not have to live in bomb shelters or appease terrorists in the hopes of being allowed to go on with their lives.
Last year, Israelis thought that life would mostly go on the way it had. Now they know it cannot.
December 7, 1941. 9/11. Oct 7. These are not just dates: they are wake up calls. A year later after a long day of terror and death on what was to be a joyous holiday, Israel is awake.
{Reposted from the author’s blog}
