The Biden Doctrine shaped today’s strike by Israel on the Houthis. What is the Biden Doctrine? The principle that Iran is free, either directly or indirectly through its proxies, to attack Israel, but Israel must not attack Iran. “Take the win,” Biden told Netanyahu after Iran, on April 12-13, attacked Israel with the largest ballistic missile barrage in history.
In deference to Biden and his team of Obama staffers, the Israelis restrained themselves in response to Iran. The IDF made due with a demonstration of capabilities rather than launching a counterattack that would have taken from the Iranians something they hold dear.
Supreme Leader Khamenei thanked Team Obama-Biden in its characteristic fashion, namely, by green lighting escalations against Israel by Hezbollah and the Houthis.
The last two weeks on Israel’s northern border have been tough ones for Israel, and then came the Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv yesterday. The attack killed only one man, but it had a massive psychological impact. It showed the world that Tel Aviv was in range, and that the drones that Iran supplies to the Houthis and Hezbollah can pass through Israeli defenses undetected.
Judging by the size of the massive crowd in Sana’a yesterday, braying for Jewish and American blood, the psychological impact was as big there as it was in Jerusalem. Prime Minister Netanyahu and his military advisors therefore decided today to launch a significant counterattack.
They chose their target not just to deter the Houthis but also to send messages to Nasrallah, Khamenei, and Obama — pardon me, Biden. The Israeli targeteers selected the Houthis’ oil facilities. Why?
First, psychology. The flames are huge. Everyone in the world will see that the Israelis mean business. This isn’t a quiet signal to decision-makers: it’s a message to the world.
Second, it causes the Houthis real pain. They are poor. They have few exports besides terrorism and a relatively limited oil production. The Americans and British, until now, have limited their counterattacks to pinprick strikes against missile launchers, etc. That is to say that the American-British counterattacks have been just big enough to allow officials in Washjngton and London to answer critics by saying that they aren’t taking the Houthi attacks on shipping sitting down, but not actually big enough to deter the Houthis, let alone Iran.
Third, this attack tells Nasrallah and all his Lebanese enablers: “Those Iranian missile Hezbollah stores next to the duty free cognac at the Beirut airport, the Lebanon’s electric grid, its oil storage depots — they and all other elements of critical national infrastructure are all fair game.
Fourth, the operation tells the Iranians not to get too comfortable under the shelter of the Biden Doctrine. “Yes, Mr. Khamanei, Biden did restrain us in April, but we do not intend to let the Americans turn us into your punching bag. Today the Houthis’ oil; tomorrow, yours.” The distance the planes flew between Israel and Yemen is similar to the distance to Iran.
Fifth, the attack tells Team Obama-Biden this is not, at root, an Israeli-Palestinian war. Properly understood it is an asymmetric war against the U.S. launched by Iran. This message sets the stage nicely for Netanyahu’s speech before both houses of Congress on Wednesday.
{Written by Mike Doran and reposted with permission from the author’s post on X}
