I usually start my annual Rosh Hashanah quiz column by pointing out that as bad as things were in the previous year, they can always get worse. That was never more true than it was in 5784. The atrocities of Oct. 7, followed by the bloody war against Hamas and Hezbollah that is still raging, and the accompanying surge in antisemitism around the globe wasn’t on anyone’s bingo card when we celebrated the New Year a few weeks earlier. Anyone, that is, except for the Palestinian terrorists who carried out the worst mass slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust.
Looking back on the last year, it’s difficult to recall much good news happening, except for some of the amazing feats of daring and courage on the part of Israel’s military and intelligence services, though even those don’t quite erase their failures on Oct. 7.
Israel is at war, still grieving over the hostages who are still being held by Hamas and sympathizing with the hundreds of thousands in both the north and the south who have still not been able to return to their homes thanks to the terrorist attacks. And it is also still deeply divided about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and much else.
Here in the United States, American Jews are facing the worst antisemitism in living memory as pro-Hamas mobs target Jewish students on college campuses while the leaders of some of those elite institutions couldn’t bring themselves to say that advocacy for the genocide of Jews was against their school’s rules.
Meanwhile, we’ve experienced a presidential campaign unlike any other. The Democrats swapped out their presidential candidate after President Joe Biden’s incapacity was starkly revealed in a June Debate with former President Donald Trump. His replacement, Vice President Kamala Harris, is now locked in a close race with Trump, who has survived two assassination attempts in as many months, including one in which he was wounded. And all this happened after an equally unprecedented lawfare campaign waged by the Democrats against Trump as they sought to bankrupt and jail their leading opponent.
As the conflict with Iranian-backed terrorists rages and Americans and Israelis wage political warfare tearing apart communities, it’s still incumbent on us not to lose what is left of our sense of humor, even as we try to account for our misdeeds.
So, before the Almighty writes down just how much worse (or better) it will be for us in the proverbial Book of Life, I present (with apologies, as always, to the late New York Times columnist William Safire) the latest edition of my annual Jewish Pundit Quiz.
So, guess (or should I say prognosticate?) along with me about the coming year.
For the second year in a row, I had more correct answers about the future than wrong ones in last year’s quiz, though I got some big ones dead wrong.
I was right about Trump being the GOP nominee; wrong about Biden being the Democrats’ choice (though they did so by invalidating the primaries they held that Biden had won); wrong about Trump being convicted three or four times rather than just once; wrong that the House Republicans would impeach Biden; right that Netanyahu would remain prime minister; wrong that the debate over Israeli judicial reform would continue since it was ended by Oct. 7; right that Iran is already a threshold nuclear power; right that the Ukraine war would remain stalemated; right that the Saudis would not recognize Israel; and right that The New York Times would not devote major resources to investing antisemitism at the City University of New York.
My answers to this year’s quiz are located at the bottom of the article. Save it until next year to see which of us was right this time.
And remember, if you are worried about the outcome, teshuvah (“repentance”), tefillah (“prayer”) and tzedakah (“acts of justice and charity”) may avert the severe decree.
1. The winner of the 2024 presidential race will be:
A: Vice President Kamala Harris
B: Former President Donald Trump
C: Jill Stein
D: Cornel West
2. In the aftermath of the election, what event will happen?
A: The loser will not graciously congratulate the winner.
B: Supporters of the loser will resort to riots and/or violence.
C: Members of the party that loses will challenge the Electoral College votes of the winner
D: The winner will seek to exact revenge via investigations and prosecutions of members of the opposing party.
E: All of the above.
3. Control of the U.S. Congress in 2025 will be:
A: Republicans win both the House and the Senate
B: Democrats win the House but lose the Senate
C: Democrats lose the House but hold the Senate
D: Democrats win both the House and the Senate
4. By Rosh Hashanah 5786, the prime minister of Israel will be:
A: Benjamin Netanyahu, who will still be in office after the first post-Oct. 7 election ends in a stalemate.
B: Benny Gantz, who will lead a left-wing coalition to victory.
C: Naftali Bennett, whose new party will head a new non-Likud-led coalition.
D: Yariv Levin, who leads the right to victory after Netanyahu withdraws from the race for health reasons.
5. By Rosh Hashanah 5786, the war against Hamas in Gaza will:
A: Have concluded in a ceasefire imposed by President Kamala Harris that will leave Hamas able to claim victory and still holding many hostages.
B: Have concluded after the Israel Defense Forces’ mopping-up operations were encouraged by President Donald Trump’s exhortation to finish the job.
C: Still be an ongoing conflict, as Israel’s efforts to destroy all of the Hamas tunnels continue while the terrorists still manage to hold onto some of the remaining hostages.
D: Have become an afterthought in the midst of the wider regional war against Iran and its terrorist proxies that spreads across the Middle East.
6. The conflict against Hezbollah will:
A: Have concluded in a stalemate as the Biden-Harris administration and the United Nations impose a ceasefire on Israel without ensuring that the people of northern Israel can return home.
B: Have concluded after, due to Iranian fears that their proxy would be destroyed, Hezbollah backs down and withdraws its forces north of the Litani River and stops firing on Northern Israel.
C: Still be dragging on as Israel refuses to accept cease-fire offers while a diminished Hezbollah refuses to accept defeat.
D: Have become an afterthought in the midst of the wider regional war against Iran and its terrorist proxies that spreads across the Middle East.
7. By Rosh Hashanah 5786, Iran’s nuclear-weapons program will:
A: Be accepted as a fait accomplis by the Harris administration.
B: Be crippled by an overwhelming Israeli airstrike on its facilities.
C: Be in the process of being dismantled after the defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah is followed by Trump’s reimposition of harsh economic sanctions that leads to the fall of the Islamist regime.
D: Still thought of as not having reached its goal though it is already a threshold nuclear power.
8. By Rosh Hashanah 5786, the war between Ukraine and Russia will:
A: Be over after a Russian onslaught topples the government in Kyiv.
B: Still be stalemated as the Harris administration doubles down on more aid to the Zelenskyy government, despite the failure of Kyiv’s latest offensives.
C: Be concluded after the Trump administration brokers a deal guaranteeing Ukrainian independence without giving Kyiv the territories it lost in 2014 or NATO membership.
D: Be forgotten after Kyiv’s use of U.S. missiles on Russian cities triggers a nuclear war.
9. By Rosh Hashanah 5786, the diversity, equity and inclusion movement will have:
A: Been further codified into U.S. law by the Harris administration.
B: Been significantly rolled back by Trump as his Justice Department’s lawsuits ensure that it is routed out of U.S. education, culture and government.
C: Been expanded as an incident of racial violence in the aftermath of the 2024 election sets off another moral panic about race.
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Tobin answers: 1-b; 2-e; 3-a; 4-a; 5-c; 6-c; 7-d; 8-c; 9-b
{Reposted from JNS}
