The International Arena
It is interesting to see how the world lines up – with al-Sisi or against him: his main opposition is the United States, or more accurately, President Obama and the State Department. But on the other hand, there are many others in the United States who support the military and the steps that it is taking against the Muslim Brotherhood. Israel supports the military, but Europe thinks that the military acted in an anti-democratic manner when it removed the Brotherhood from power. Obama, the State Department and Europe want democracy at any price, even at the price of transfer of power – by democratic elections, of course – to an Islamist body that does not relate at all to any of the democratic values: the rule of law, separation of powers, rights of minorities, women’s rights, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom to assemble, freedom of religion and freedom from religion. Al-Sisi knows better than they do what is right for Egypt and what is not.
Erdoğan–Mursi’s ally and an antisemite for many years–tells the world that Israel is actually behind the revolution against his Brothers. As a result, he gets a cold shoulder both from the United States and from Egypt as well. It is conspiracy theory interspersed with allusions from the “Protocols of the Elders of Zion” and Erdoğan issues these declarations loudly and clearly. In light of these words, the prime minister of Israel should rethink his apology to Turkey for the Mavi Marmara incident.
But most interesting is Saudi Arabia’s position: it supports the military and al-Sisi and objects to the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood. Saudi Arabia is even willing to donate money to substitute for the loss of American financial aid, if the United States stops its support for Egypt and its military as a result of Mursi’s removal. The Saudis take this position in clear and audacious opposition to the president of the United States, and there are two reasons that Saudi Arabia does not hesitate to take these steps: the Saudis feel that President Obama does not understand anything about the principles that rule the Middle East so he prefers the Muslim Brotherhood over other groups for no good reason, and the second is that the Saudis are angry at Obama for not taking any effective steps against the Iranian nuclear program, which frightens the Saudis perhaps more than it frightens Israel.
But the deeper reason for the great hatred between Saudi Arabia and the Brotherhood is cultural: Saudi Arabia is Wahhabi Salafi, while the Brotherhood represents modern political Islam. The difference is simple: the Brotherhood wants to take the religion that was founded in the desert of the seventh century and adapt it to modern society of the twenty first century, while the Salafis want to take society and the state from the twenty first century and adapt it to the religion and culture of the desert of the seventh century. There is no way to bridge between these two antithetical cultural approaches, therefore the Salafis prefer secular military rule rather than modern style Islamic rule, which is contrary to its Salafi style.
From the Water, Not from the Diving Board
Here, the question arises of what is good for Israel, and how Israel can – if at all – influence the events in Egypt.
The Middle East has some traits that we have still not become accustomed to: Israel is considered an illegitimate entity, so anyone that Israel supports loses legitimacy. Therefore in any conflict in the Middle East between side A and side B, if Israel wants to bolster side A, it must declare that it supports side B. Thus side B would lose legitimacy and side A be strengthened. Did you get it? The same is true for the United States.
Another feature that is difficult to become accustomed to is the political dynamic of the Middle East, especially since the beginning of the “Arab Winter.” Yesterday’s friend becomes today’s opponent, and today’s enemy can become tomorrow’s friend. Israel has an interest in the Egyptian military succeeding in the battle for Egypt, therefore it is logical to support it in the world capitals. But it could very well be that tomorrow this army might bring large forces into the Sinai, which is against the peace agreement, claiming that they are engaged in a “war on terror”. It may also declare a suspension of the peace agreement, in order to calm the Egyptian street. Will we say that the military is friendly then too?