(JCFA) In the aftermath of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, Gen. Qasem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, swiftly positioned himself as a dominant force within the country. Exploiting the power vacuum left by Saddam Hussein’s fall, Soleimani cultivated influence over Iraq’s political and military landscape. He orchestrated the rise of Shiite militias, transforming them into powerful paramilitary groups that would serve as Iran’s proxies. Under his direction, these groups not only targeted U.S. forces but also systematically extended Iran’s control over Iraq, making it a key node in Tehran’s regional network of influence. Today, Iran seeks to replicate this model in Jordan and Judea and Samaria, leveraging instability to further its geopolitical ambitions.
Iran’s Recent Setbacks: A Tactical Pause, Not a Strategic Defeat
Despite its expansionist aspirations, Iran has suffered significant blows in the past year. Its premier proxy, Hizbullah, has been shattered by Israeli military operations, suffering heavy casualties and losing key operational capabilities. In Syria, the long-standing Iranian-backed regime of Bashar al-Assad is now gone as emboldened Sunni factions—many of them vehemently opposed to Iranian influence—have taken control. Meanwhile, Hamas, Iran’s key Palestinian proxy, has suffered devastating losses following Israel’s post-October 7, 2023, offensive, with its leadership fragmented and its operational capacity significantly diminished. Iran, for all its rhetoric, has found itself largely unable to provide meaningful assistance to Hamas, exposing its limitations as a so-called regional powerhouse.
Furthermore, Iran’s vulnerability has been laid bare by Israeli strikes on its defense infrastructure, including targeted attacks on air defense systems and military assets within Iranian territory itself. These strikes have shattered Tehran’s illusion of invincibility, making it more exposed than ever to direct retaliation. Economic turmoil, worsening sanctions, and domestic unrest have only compounded Iran’s predicament, pushing its regime into an increasingly desperate position.
Nevertheless, Tehran has not abandoned its long-term vision of jihadist expansion. The regime’s hardliners do not view these setbacks as a turning point but as temporary tactical challenges that must be navigated before resuming their broader objectives. Iran remains committed to its ideological war against Israel and the West, seeking to regroup, adapt, and exploit any emerging opportunities to rebuild its regional network
The Growing Iranian Threat to U.S. Interests in the Region
Iran’s strategic doctrine has long emphasized patience in achieving its objectives. Ayatollah Khamenei once remarked, “Patience is the key to victory; with steadfastness, the enemy will eventually succumb.” Tehran’s modus operandi is deeply rooted in the exploitation of instability, systematically infiltrating societies from within. The Iranian regime has demonstrated this approach time and again—engineering the rise of Hizbullah in Lebanon, empowering the Houthis in Yemen, and now setting its sights on Jordan and Judea and Samaria. Wherever Iran detects societal fissures, political fragility, or governance failures, it moves in to cultivate influence from the ground up, establishing deeply embedded networks that subvert sovereign authority and advance its long-term regional ambitions.
Iranian Subversion in Jordan and Judea and Samaria
Iran is exploiting regional vulnerabilities to destabilize Jordan’s pro-Western monarchy and establish a contiguous anti-Israel network. The Quds Force’s efforts include:
- Facilitating Transnational Militancy: In the wake of the October 7 attacks, Iran has intensified its use of Iraqi militias to infiltrate Jordan, often under the guise of religious pilgrimages or commercial activity.
- Arming and Funding Radical Elements: Tehran is bolstering Palestinian factions, including small extremist groups in Jordan and Judea and Samaria, with weapons, financial support, and tactical training.
- Revitalizing Islamist Networks: Iran is reactivating dormant Islamist groups within Jordan, particularly factions of the Muslim Brotherhood, to weaken the government’s authority.
- Expanding Coalition Warfare: Iran is working to unite Palestinian militant groups, including secular factions, into a broader anti-Israel front.
- Targeting Jordanian Leadership: Intelligence suggests that Iranian-backed operatives have contemplated operations against Jordanian leadership, including potential threats to King Abdullah II.
- Bottom-Up Infiltration: Just as Iran has done in Lebanon with Hizbullah and in Yemen with the Houthis, it is working to build grassroots support among disenfranchised populations in Jordan and Judea and Samaria, leveraging socio-economic hardships to radicalize local elements and cultivate long-term proxies.
- Increased Weapons Smuggling: Jordanian security forces have intercepted numerous Iranian-backed weapons shipments destined for Judea and Samaria, exacerbating regional instability.
- Iraqi Militia Presence in Jordan: Reports indicate that Iranian-backed operatives have established logistical hubs in Jordanian cities, laying the groundwork for future escalations.
- Cyber Warfare and Disinformation: Iran is using sophisticated cyber tactics to destabilize Jordan’s government, spreading propaganda to incite unrest.
- Radicalization in Palestinian Refugee Camps: Iran is exploiting socio-economic grievances to recruit and radicalize Palestinian refugees, leveraging the aftermath of the October 7, 2023, attacks.
- Creation of Parallel Power Structures: Just as Hizbullah operates as a state within a state in Lebanon, Iran is attempting to foster localized power centers within Jordanian and Palestinian communities that could challenge existing governmental authority over time.
Iran’s Strategic Expansion and its Threat to U.S. National Security
Iran’s ambitions in Jordan and Judea and Samaria threaten U.S. interests by destabilizing key regional allies. A weakened Jordan risks becoming a battleground for Iranian proxies, while increased Iranian influence in Judea and Samaria heightens the risk of conflict with Israel. Given the United States’ strategic partnership with Jordan, any threat to the Hashemite Kingdom directly endangers American regional objectives. Iran’s strategy is not merely one of direct confrontation but of systematic erosion—undermining stability through infiltration, radicalization, and the weaponization of socio-political discontent. The lessons from Qasem Soleimani’s rise in Iraq should serve as a warning: unchecked Iranian influence leads to long-term instability and a direct challenge to U.S. and allied interests. To counteract this threat, it is imperative to strengthen regional partnerships, enhance intelligence-sharing, and disrupt Iran’s ability to establish yet another proxy-driven stronghold.
Originally published by the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs.
