{Originally posted to the authors’ website, The Lid}
Like the hair atop my head, Marco-mentum has disappeared, and Kasich’s mid-west strategy has gone south. Yesterday Donald Trump won another three primaries and increased his lead over Ted Cruz by 15 delegates. Ted Cruz won one and placed second place in the remaining three, John Kasich won 17 delegates and Marco Rubio was shut out.
The one thing settled last night was that it is past time for Marco Rubio and John Kasich to drop out, unless of course they want Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee. The only candidate with a chance of beating Trump (and it’s a long shot) is Ted Cruz.
This doesn’t mean that I believe that Rubio or Kasich would be a lousy president, quite the opposite. As I have said all along Rubio, Kasich, or Cruz would receive my strong support if they were the nominee—it’s just that the numbers don’t work for the Florida senator or the Ohio governor. As of this morning Rubio would need to win almost 76% of the remaining delegates to get the nomination, Kasich would need over 82% (Trump would need 53%, and Cruz 61%).
Next Tuesday, the winner-take-all primaries kick in. Another 367 delegates will be awarded in five primaries and one caucus. With the exception of North Carolina’s 72 delegates they all will be awarded on a winner-take all basis. Even if Rubio and Kasich win their home states next week they will still be far behind Trump and Cruz. But if they drop out today and throw their support to the Texas senator, there is a chance that Cruz could win Ohio and even Illinois which selects its delegates on March 15 also.
Both Kasich and Rubio are looking toward an open convention, where no one gets the 1237 delegates on the first ballot, and some of the delegates are freed up to change their votes. And it is true that this is the only way for either one of them to get the nomination. But the truth is even if they prevent Trump from getting the necessary votes in the first ballot it is not likely that either would end up with the nomination anyway (unless their total is very close to that of the leader, not very likely). If Cruz is very close to Trump in Cleveland and it goes to a second ballot, he has a chance of getting the nomination. But if Trump has a big lead, even if he doesn’t win on the first ballot, if the nomination goes to anyone else….well lets just say if there is anger at the GOP establishment today just wait to see what happens if people feel Trump was screwed.
Trump has to be almost tied by another candidate or beaten outright and it has to be “fair and square.” Ted Cruz is the only one left who can do it but to make it happen he must be allowed to compete with Trump on a one on one basis.
And if the so called GOP establishment wants to prevent Trump from being their 2016 standard bearer, whether Rubio or Kasich drop out or not, they need to move their money to Cruz. That would be a tough choice for the big money people because they aren’t fans of Cruz either, but polls show that Donald Trump would lose to Hillary Clinton by an average of 5.5%, and Cruz has a slight (1.5%) lead. Additionally of the remaining candidates, Ted Cruz has the best chance of keeping the “trumpers” as he is as anti-establishment as Trump (without the dick jokes). Therefore unless they want Donald Trump to be the GOP nominee the big money establishment donors need to finance Cruz.
For the good of the country and to prevent a President Hillary Clinton, Marco Rubio and John Kasich need to drop out ASAP.
Below is a chart showing the remaining state contests in chronological order: