Most observers are saying that Iran now has more incentive than ever to develop nuclear weapons. They cite Israel’s humiliating demonstration of Iran’s military weakness, its devastation of its air defenses and so-called “axis of resistance” consisting of its proxy terror groups Hezbollah and Hamas – and most recently the fall of its main ally Syrian President Bashar al Assad. So, prudence dictates that some serious thinking is in order about how to prevent that predator nation from being able to throw its weight around in the Middle East and internationally with a nuclear sword of Damocles in its arsenal. And this may be an unusually propitious time.
In terms of military action taking out Iran’s nuclear development sites, Israel has clearly demonstrated that the sites are well within reach of Israeli air power – and certainly that of the United States. So that is unquestionably an option and one that Prime Minister Netanyahu has said he favors and, of course, it is Israel that has the most at stake.
But we do not yet know where incoming President Donald Trump is up to in his thinking on this. While he did pull the United States out of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, as we recall it, the problem he saw was the lack of meaningful inspections and enforcement that was the work product of President Barak Obama who was so anxious for a deal that he went along with the many loopholes the Iranians insisted upon. Now Mr. Trump will be facing a seriously vulnerable Iran that may feel compelled to seek a new deal and also accept his demands for a deal with real teeth. And it is not just because of Iran’s military weakness.
The New York Times reported the other day that Iran is in the midst of a full-blown energy emergency and its economy is tanking. Government offices are closed or operating at reduced hours. Schools and colleges have moved to online only. Highways and shopping malls have gone dark. Industrial plants have been denied power, bringing manufacturing to a near halt. In fact, for most of last week the country was virtually shut down to save energy.
According to The New York Times, although Iran has one of the biggest supplies of natural gas and crude oil in the world, years of sanctions, mismanagement, aging infrastructure, wasteful consumption, and targeted attacks by Israel have taken their toll and have brought Iran to its most critical point since the Ayatollahs overthrew the Shah in 1979 and established the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Some see the current events as signs that the Iranian regime is unraveling in real time before our eyes. Indeed, according to the Associated Press, as an indication that the Ayatollah Khamenei gets how fragile the government is, he has agreed to a pause in the process of implementing a new, stricter law on women’s mandatory headscarf, or hijab, for fear of igniting protests over the widely unpopular requirement.
At all events, President-elect Trump has said that one of his first orders of business would be to renew the severe economic sanctions on Iran he imposed in his first administration but which were relaxed by President Biden. He said he would also end the Biden practice of releasing frozen Iranian assets held by the United States.
So, it occurs to us that separate and apart from what it may mean for the nuclear issue, the dire straits in which Iran finds itself may, with the proper focus, also make possible regime change in the Islamic Republic and retire the Ayatollahs altogether.
Now wouldn’t that be something?
