We have no doubt Israel inflicted devastating damage on Gaza in the recent military exchange – certainly in relative terms – and that besides Israel, nobody knows this better than Hamas.
Yet we also suspect that Hamas accomplished some of its continuing goals even if the cost was near prohibitive. Indeed, most commentators on the Middle East scene are now suggesting that the signs of a flare up between Israel and Hamas and its emerging partner in crime, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, had been apparent for at least the past few weeks due to their claim that Israel was not following through on promises to ease restrictions on Gaza.
The Palestinian groups, they say, could not continue to accept this as the status quo while Israel was obviously content to see the pressure rise in Gaza against its government. And the commentators also say that the Palestinian groups made the calculation that Israel would be reluctant to go to full-fledged war on the eve of Memorial Day, Independence Day and the Eurovision contest.
In this mix, we suspect that Hamas/PIJ were also seeking an opportunity to demonstrate the advances in rocketry they had made since the last major war in 2014. And while it was clear that Israel was still firmly in the military driver’s seat, 700 missiles fired within a period of a little over a day does still stand out.
The wild card in this is the role of Iran, which is mounting a full court press to embed itself in Syria and in the Middle East generally. According to former Israeli national security adviser Yaakov Amidror, it was clear to him that Iran was behind the escalation. He said that, unlike Hamas, PIJ is a completely owned and operated Iranian subsidiary: “It was established by Iran, and does what Iran wants it to do.” Iran’s interest, he said, is for Israel to embark on another major operation in Gaza, allowing Iran a free hand, at least for a time, while Israel is otherwise occupied.
So it will be interesting to see how the swift and massive U.S. naval build up in the Gulf just ordered by President Trump plays out. The action was described ostensibly as a response to “credible” reports that Iran was planning to strike out against U.S. naval vessels and other interests of the U.S. and/or its allies in the Middle East in retaliation for Trump’s re-imposing and strengthening economic sanctions on Iran.
If Armidror is right, Trump may well be delivering an implicit warning that he intends to keep of a level playing field in the region. If Armidror is wrong and the U.S. buildup is only to deter Iran from attacking U.S. warships, than the Iranian leaders are nuttier than we thought.