The problems with the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), have been fully explored and are well known. But there is one that has gone virtually unremarked upon but which is looming large now that the U.S. has unilaterally withdrawn from the deal. The Trump administration has re-energized an economic sanctions regime against Iran and is making dire military threats in the face of Iran openly declaring its disavowal of the nuclear restrictions the JCPOA mandates. If the U.S. can decide for itself whether to continue with JCPOA, why can’t Iran do its own thing as well?
Regrettably, this notion that Iran was a full negotiating partner in the JCPOA talks was spawned by the Obama administration’s pattern of making breathtaking concessions to the Iranians. Yet, it will be recalled that the talks were envisioned as a way of avoiding military action against Iran and premised on the U.S. and the major powers virtually dictating conditions to Iran. Negotiations were meant to explain things to the Iranians and spell out what was expected of them – with the possibility of military action always in play. But Obama was looking for a way to coax Iran into a new relationship and so the U.S. became all too accommodating.
In fact, the Iranians were duty-bound to refrain from developing nuclear weapons separate and apart from JCPOA. To this day, Iran remains a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) ratified in 1970. The NPT seeks “to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and to further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament…. Each non-nuclear-weapon State party to the Treaty undertakes to accept safeguards, as set forth in an agreement to be negotiated and concluded with the International Atomic Energy Association.”
For years, though, Iran was almost universally believed to be in ongoing violation of the terms of the NPT by illicitly developing its nuclear program. Indeed, in April 2018 the Mossad spirited thousands of hidden documents out of Iran that confirmed that Iran had long pursued a nuclear weapons program. Trump cited the Israeli findings in his decision, a month later, to leave JCPOA.
In any case, the Iranians entered the JCPOA talks under the serious threat of military action by major powers determined not to allow Iran, which has been for decades the leading sponsor of terror around the world, to become a nuclear power. To be sure, Iran recently seemed to be testing the United States with small-scale attacks against Western shipping and the downing of an unmanned U.S. drone flying in international air space. And Trump ordered and then abruptly cancelled air attacks against Iranian bases saying that the Iranian attack on the drone may have been a mistake. But it is hard to believe that the Iranians think that Trump’s attempt to give them a second chance reflects a command decision to take the military option off the table. Trump is not Obama, and the last thing Iran would want is a direct military confrontation with the U.S.
Current reports are that the renewed U.S. sanctions have devastated the Iranian economy and things are about to get even worse. Trade with other countries is quickly drying up as long time trading partners are leery of running afoul of American restrictions on trade with Iran with negative consequences for their own trade with the U.S. Hopefully this Iranian economic free-fall will result in a real and verifiable check on Iranian nuclear development. But the point is that Iran should not be seen as having a say in the matter. Because it really doesn’t.