Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s startling statement last week that there was “no barrier” to nuclear talks with the U.S. seemed to come from nowhere. Ever since 2018, when former President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that was supposed to – but didn’t – monitor and restrain Iran’s development of nuclear weapons, Iran has rebuffed President Biden’s many requests to negotiate a new agreement. But we suspect that recent events in the Middle East have materially changed the Ayatollah’s calculus.
In what must now seem to the Ayatollah as a colossal blunder, he allowed, if not facilitated, the depredations of Iran’s various Middle East proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis – to escalate to a point that forced severe reactions from Israel. Indeed, for the first time Iran also engaged Israel directly in a major way.
However, what he doubtlessly failed to anticipate were the lengths to which the U.S. itself was prepared to go to defend Israel against rocket and missile attacks and also to enlist the participation of several of its allies. As it turned out, Iran aimed 400 missiles against Israel, but all but one were reportedly shot down.
Nor did the Ayatollah necessarily foresee that in the process of preparing for the defense of Israel, the U.S. would amass a virtual armada of aircraft carriers and assorted other warships and station them within striking distance of the Iranian mainland where they remain to this day.
Further, there were reports that several U.S. and Israeli officials were openly speculating that with the overwhelming allied firepower in the area, now might be the time to deal with Iran’s nuclear threat and its role as the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism. Surely, the Iranian nuclear facilities and oil installations would seem to be inviting and logical targets. In fact, the military option has long been on the table as an option in dealing with the Iranian problem. And this would not preclude the U.S. ramping up the economic sanctions imposed on Iran by then-President Trump – but since diluted by President Biden – which had hobbled the Iranian military and economy.
Even for nothing else, the Ayatollah has to be thinking about kicking himself for providing cover for the U.S. to deploy a significant military force in Iran’s neighborhood without raising the usual alarms.
Regardless, the Ayatollah had ample reason to change course and try to engage with the U.S. and avoid possible punitive U.S. actions, military and or economic. But it may be too late. Events may have been overtaken by Hamas’s murder of those hostages in the Rafah tunnels last week. While President Biden and Vice President Harris would ordinarily not be expected to take direct action against Iran, the buzz for doing so is palpable.
North Carolina Senator Lindsay Graham said in an interview on Sunday that the only way to secure the safe release of the hostages remaining in captivity is to target Iran: “Hamas couldn’t care less about the hostages or the Palestinians and if you want the hostages home, which we all do, you have to increase the cost to Iran. Iran is the great Satan here. Hamas is the junior partner.”
He went on to say: “I would urge the Biden administration and Israel to hold Iran accountable for the fate of the remaining hostages and out on the target list oil refineries in Iran if the hostages are not released.”
Plainly, without Iran’s support, Hamas would not be able to continue its guerrilla warfare against Israel, Hezbollah would not be able to continue with the daily firing of rockets into Israel and the Houthis would not be able to target and seize civilian ships in open Middle Eastern waters. Even if they balk at military action, certainly there is the sanction route available.
To be sure, Israel is capable of dealing with the Iran threat on its own. But it would be a shame if the opportunities presented by the current heightened U.S. presence in the Gulf were wasted.
