Two weeks ago we voiced our concern that there were signs that the Biden Administration was working with the Saudis to finesse Israel into recognizing a Palestinian state as the price of U.S. support for Saudi normalization with the Jewish state. It now seems that President Joe Biden is upping the ante for Israel by adding Israeli acquiescence to renewed nuclear negotiations with Iran to the mix, according to a report in Israel Hayom the other day, citing several sources.
What’s more, there are reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, heretofore an implacable foe of any new negotiated deal with Iran, may be willing to go along if that is what it would take to achieve normalization with Saudi Arabia.
There is ample evidence of the Biden ploy. Aside from President Biden’s well-publicized focus on new talks with Iran, his special envoy for Iran has reportedly been meeting with the Iranian ambassador to the United Nations on the negotiations issue; it is believed to be the first direct interaction between American and Israeli officials since then-president Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 nuclear deal. Significantly, the Financial Times, citing diplomats and analysts, noted that the ambassador was a senior member of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council before his UN posting, a body which ordinarily plays an important role in geopolitical and nuclear issues.
To be sure, officials are insisting that the discussions are ostensibly focused on a possible prisoner exchange and that no new nuclear negotiations are planned. Other events suggest an alternative context, however.
Israel Hayom reported last week that Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi met with Biden administration officials about the possibilities of both renewed nuclear negotiations with Iran and a Saudi-Israeli normalization agreement. Additionally, Axios has reported that U.S. officials made contact with Omani officials to explore the possibility of reviving mediated nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran.
Finally, despite Prime Minister Netanyahu’s historical opposition to any nuclear deal with Iran, Biden’s offer to broker one which included normalization with Saudi Arabia is another sign of sea change. While his opposition to a deal with Iran has been ferocious, Netanyahu also was quoted prior to the last election that “the big prize is peace with Saudi Arabia, which I intend to achieve if I go back into office.”
In short, the notion that something is brewing between the United States and Iran is a credible one. It will be the Israelis, of course, who must decide on the balance between possibly empowering a nuclear Iran and achieving normal relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia; but the questions do seem to be active ones and very much in play.
