Although precisely how the drama begun on Oct. 7 plays out is somewhat of a work in progress that is fraught with great danger, there can be no denying that Israel made some important geopolitical points when it faced down Iran and Hezbollah last week.
That both of its arch enemies were subjected to uncommonly humiliating assassinations linked to Israel and yet largely restrained themselves in their respective responses means that both concluded that the risks of engaging with the Jewish state outweighed any damage to their images and prestige. And while escalations can assume a life of their own, both had to shudder at the thought that Israel had successfully breached their defenses and was able to reach into their secure places and successfully locate and take out their vaunted rocket and missile launchers.
And this is to say nothing about Iran’s fear for the now apparent vulnerability of their nuclear production sites and Hezbollah’s concern that its home base of Lebanon could soon suffer the same fate as Gaza.
Significant also is the lesson the Saudis and Abraham Accord states – that are in mortal fear of Iran and Hezbollah – should have come away with. Plainly, they saw that with the United States reliably having Israel’s back and with its power lurking in the background, it behooves them all to make common cause with the Jewish state.
To be sure, some would have to adjust their current position on the creation of a Palestinian state. But ultimately, this will be a function of how much they feel threatened by Iran and how much they want to share in Israel’s economic miracle.
And perhaps most importantly, Israel demonstrated that it is well-positioned and equipped to serve – in collaboration with the U.S. – as the glue that could keep the bad actors at bay.
