Although Israel’s current refusal to allow supplies to enter Gaza has ignited the usual anti-Israel alarums in the UN and in some world capitals, in context it really makes a lot of sense. Indeed, Hamas, which claims to represent Gaza, can quickly turn things around by simply following through on what it has already indicated it would do.
With the expiration of the so-called first phase of the January 19 Gaza cease fire deal this past Saturday without agreement with Hamas on a phase two – largely the result of Hamas’ recalcitrance – Israel was plainly free to stop the flow of food and other supplies into Gaza in order to pressure Hamas (which claims to represent the Gaza Palestinians) to either unilaterally free the remaining hostages or negotiate seriously. Not incidentally, in a significant departure from the Biden administration, President Trump supports the Israeli move.
Why the phase two negotiations have not taken place is somewhat involved.
Israel has insisted that Hamas must acknowledge the overarching understanding that the precondition to phase two negotiations is that Hamas must disarm, cease to exist as a political or military entity and have no involvement in the post-war governance of Gaza. Thus, Israel has accepted an American proposal that there be an extension of phase one to allow time for phase two negotiations to begin. Its bar to supplies being allowed to enter Gaza – which has the full backing of the U.S. – is designed in part to pressure Hamas to go along with the extension proposal.
However, according to The New York Times, while Hamas had at one time signaled that it was prepared to end any role in Gaza after the end of the war, it then began saying that it is willing to give up civilian governance of Gaza but firmly rejects dissolving its military wing, a critical source of its power in Gaza. It is also demanding that the second phase of the original agreement be implemented now, even before a formal agreement is reached. The second phase – which was agreed to in principle but never worked out in detail – calls for an end to the war, a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the release of all living hostages.
But Hamas’ refusal to disarm is a declaration that it is fully contemplating a reprise of its forcible seizure of Gaza from the Palestinian Authority in 2007 and not only surviving the Gaza war with Israel, but also emerging as the leader of the Palestinian world and a force in the Arab world generally.
Plainly, giving Hams a pass at this point – with all of the likely consequences – is something neither Prime Minister Netanyahu nor President Trump is prepared to do.
There was a lot of celebrating by Gazans over what their Hamas leaders perpetrated on Oct. 7, and certainly there was scant criticism of it. So, at all events, the Gazans made their beds and will now get a chance to sleep in them.
