The exploding pagers and walkie-talkies, successful Israeli targeting of Hezbollah leaders, and devastating air strikes surely caused Hezbollah to seriously rethink any notion of engaging in an all-out war with Israel. This is certainly so in the light of the consequences Gaza faced for the Hamas Oct. 7 massacre.
But it is also likely that looming large in their thinking is that any such engagement would mean that Israel would be at war simultaneously on its western and northern borders and there is some doubt as to whether the U.S. would back Israeli ground incursions into Lebanon in pursuit of Hezbollah if Israel deemed that necessary. Indeed, a continuing Biden administration refrain has been that while it supports Israel in its conflict with Hezbollah, it does not believe a ground invasion is the way to go.
At all events, it would seem that a declaration of fulsome U.S. support for Israel would likely deter any further Hezbollah adventurism and persuade its leaders that prudence dictates a several mile pullback from Israel’s northern borders as per the agreement ending the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. That agreement established a line between the two and required that Hezbollah not approach it. However, ground breaches continue to occur, as well as regular rocket barrages, which Hezbollah claims are in solidarity with Hamas.
President Biden continues to urge the importance of diplomacy to try to get Hezbollah to pull back – this is something with which Prime Minister Netanyahu has publicly concurred. But the Prime Minister also says that the necessary predicate is making Hezbollah fully understand that Israel also has an overwhelming military capacity to protect its northern border. President Biden should now help him get Nasrallah’s full attention.
