If the conventional wisdom has gotten it right, and we think it has, the October 7 massacre was designed by Hamas to derail the imminent Saudi normalization deal with Israel by drawing both a massive response from Israel and correlative sympathy from the Arab world.
A normalization agreement, of course, promised to expand the Abraham Accords to include the Gulf’s most powerful and important Arab country and foretold of an economic and military bulwark built around Israel strength against Iran and its Arab surrogates Hamas and Hezbollah. And the fact that it had been moving along without an agreement on the creation of a Palestinian state meant that the Palestinians no longer could count on being granted a veto power over progress on a deal.
Providentially, Hamas’s barbarity was its own death warrant which Israel is about to execute. It appears from the way things are going on the battle field, that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s observation that it was time for Hamas to go was, B”H, no idle boast. It also appears that Hamas used the wrong calculus in planning its depravity. Thus, although Hamas is being decimated by the full force of Israel’s considerable military power, the rest of the Arab world is not biting.
Indeed, while there are some dutiful calls for a cease fire, there is none of the frenzied hyperbole of the Intifada days. What the Hamas leaders apparently missed was the implications of Israel’s Arab neighbors having made a strategic decision to bond with Israel and take full advantage of the deterrent power of Israeli military might vis-à-vis Iran. So, if anything the Saudis and the other Gulf states are anxious to see Israel demonstrate ever greater military prowess in its war with Hamas.
Nor did Hamas correctly calculate America’s probable reaction. Speaking from his office in Beirut, senior Hamas political leadership member Ali Barakeh told the Financial Times that they “didn’t expect this much of a response” from the U.S. “An Israeli response? Yes. We expected that. But what we’re seeing now is the entrance of the U.S. into the battle, and this we didn’t count on.”
It should also be noted that the Times of Israel is reporting that President Biden and Saudi Crown Prince recently agreed, in the midst of Israel’s war against Hamas, that they would eventually “build on” the negotiations that were underway to normalize ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia before the outbreak of the Gaza war.
The New York Times has also reported that Saudi officials are making it clear that they are determined to prevent the war from casting a pall over Crown Prince Mohammed’s plans for the kingdom which include reshaping the economy to reduce dependence on oil and turning the country into a global hub for business and tourism, all of which require normalization with Israel.
So, Hamas once again severely miscalculated and this time they will be paying the ultimate price. Frankly, they have earned it – and more.
