It will be recalled that the criticism leveled at the Obama Administration during the 2015 run-up to the Iran nuclear deal – known as JCPOA – involved not only many of it provisions but also what the agreement left unaddressed. As we and others said at the time, the inspection and verification provisions are a joke, and the fact that the deal had a termination date of 15 years meant that any restraint on Iran’s nuclear development was only temporary and that Iran would soon be able to resume its nuclear program with a vengeance and still be in nominal compliance with JCPOA. Moreover, from virtually the get-go, Iran would secure the return of tens of billions of dollars in seized assets and the ending of economic sanctions that had crippled Iran’s economy.
It was also noted that the deal did not require Iran to end its sponsorship of terrorism through surrogates around the world; it did not even place conditions on the funds the U.S. gave Iran or the development of Iran’s missile system – a dangerous error given the looming sunset of JCPOA some years hence. At the time, we suggested that President Obama had made his peace with the notion of an inevitable hegemonic Iran in the Middle East and wanted to put the U.S. on the right side of history.
The Syrian revolution only electrified our concerns. Obama declared Assad’s government to be a rogue regime and committed itself to deposing Assad – but that made no impression on Iran, which moved massive numbers of troops and materiel in support of Assad, all funded by JCPOA recoveries. In addition, Iran funded the swift growth of Hizbullah into a major military force, replete with tens of thousands of missiles, in both Lebanon and Syria.
In sum, our fears were unfortunately on target. JCPOA facilitated Iran’s emergence as a major Middle East power with its malignant foreign policy not only intact but substantially enhanced.
A recent front-page story in the New York Times confirms our analysis. Entitled, “Iran, Deeply Embedded in Syria, Expands ‘Axis of Resistance,’” the article discusses the recent flare up between Israel and Iran after an Iranian drone flew into Israeli airspace earlier this month. As will be recalled, the drone was shot down and Israel then attacked the Iranian base in Syria from which the drone was launched. One of the IAF planes returning from the attack was shot down by Syria after the IAF had destroyed many Syrian anti-aircraft batteries in the area.
According to The Times, the incident ended quickly but also “drew new attention to how deeply Iran has embedded itself in Syria, redrawing the strategic map of the region.” The article went on to say,
Tactical advisers from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp are deployed at military bases across Syria…Iran has built and continues to back powerful militias with thousands of fighters it has trained in Syria…. Both Israeli officials and Israel’s enemies say that any new conflict between Israel and Iran, or any of its allies, could mobilize Iran’s expanding network of militant proxies in multiple countries, what Iran refers to as ‘the axis of resistance.’… Iranian leaders speak openly of their work to build this axis of resistance against Israeli and American influence.
All of this seems to have reached a critical mass. Thus, The Times reports:
Iran’s moves in the region have alarmed the United States. “What’s particularly concerning is that this network of proxies is becoming more and more capable as Iran seeds more and more” of its “destructive weapons into these networks,” Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, President Trump’s National Security adviser, said at a security conference in Munich on Saturday. “So the time is now, we think, to act against Iran,” General McMaster added.
President Obama habitually spoke of his presidential legacy. Let’s hope that he will not be remembered for something far different from what he had in mind.