Our takeaway from President Joe Biden’s trip to the Middle East is that he got things mostly right. He left no doubt that the United States will be a continuing presence in the Middle East and will not abandon it to China, Russia, and Iran; this is something of obvious importance to Israel. He also emphasized that the American foreign policy goal is to ensure peace in the region by supporting and working through Israel and the nations that have joined the Abraham Accords (and those expected to join it as well). He was fully committed to promoting the growth and strengthening of the group.
We agree with Prime Minister Yair Lapid, however, that the only credible deterrent to Iran becoming a nuclear power is having a military option on the table, in contrast with President Biden’s characterization as “a last resort.” The statement by a senior adviser to the Ayatollah that Iran already has the capacity to build a nuclear weapon may make the difference a mere matter of semantics.
Additionally, when President Biden reiterated his support for a two-state solution he added, for the first time, that the states should be based on the pre-1967 lines with agreed-upon land swaps. For now, however, he said “the ground is not ripe” for restarting negotiations.
This is just the kind of diplomatic gobbledygook that lets people get past difficult confrontations. Some have criticized the decision to remove the Israeli flag from the President’s official car transporting him to East Jerusalem, when the day before an Israeli flag stood side by side with an American one. We think it is more significant that he did not meet any of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s demands: He did not call on Israel to stop settlement expansion in Judea and Samaria; he did not announce a return of the U.S. Embassy from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv; he did not withdraw President Trump’s designation of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital; and he did not recognize a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.
He also did not announce the reopening of the U.S. Consulate in Jerusalem, which would have amounted to granting the Palestinians a diplomatic presence in the city. He did not agree to remove the Palestinian Liberation Organization – the symbol of the Palestinian claim to nationhood – from the official list of terrorist organizations. He also rejected Abbas’ request that the United States condemn Israel over the death of Palestinian-American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, a cause célèbre in anti-Israel circles.
President Biden may have left little doubt where he stands, at least for the near future, on the Israel-Palestinian dispute, it’s not clear that Saudi Arabia, the big Arab elephant in the room, shares his position. In fact, in recent months the Saudis have publicly declared several times that a two-state solution is a prerequisite for their support of the Abraham Accords.
In reality, Israel and Saudi Arabia have been cooperating on security under the radar for years; just last week, an agreement was reached allowing Israeli flights over Saudi territory. The Saudis have also publicly declared many times their ultimate desire for a strategic normalization. We suspect that Saudi cooperation with Israel will continue apace, perhaps thanks to concern about Iran that will spur other Arab countries in the same direction.
Now that will be a very big deal.
