We will soon know whether or not Hamas’s murderous rampage and the ensuing Israeli retaliation will succeed in derailing the much anticipated, extraordinary Israel-Saudi Arabia normalization agreement – much the result Hamas intended. The attacks and the inevitable Israeli military response will likely remind the Arab world of its pet fiction of Palestinian victimhood and delegitimize any Arab contact with Israel.
At all events, it seems to us critical that Israel’s and the U.S.’s responses must be a strategic all-inclusive one and not limited to military action. It must include serious efforts to persuade the Saudis that going ahead with the normalization plan is in their national interest and represents a once in a lifetime opportunity for them. And it must include serious effort to degrade Iran’s place in the world.
Before the latest Hamas barbarity, it seemed the stage had been set for a transformative Middle East breakthrough agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia brokered by the Biden Administration. The key players in the drama – those two countries and the United States – had reportedly reached an understanding which significantly furthered their respective interests and thus made a successful outcome likely. The glue to the deal was to be President Biden’s commitment to give the other two what they wanted and the U.S. would bag a historic and sorely needed foreign policy achievement in the light of recent Chinese foreign policy successes.
In the deal Israel would realize its longtime goal of a regular, cooperative relationship with the largest and arguably the most powerful Arab country and an upgraded relationship with the U.S. to offset Saudi enhancements.
The Saudis would get help from both Israel and the U.S. From Israel it would get access to Israel’s cutting edge civilian and military technology. From the U.S. it would get help with its existential defense problems (read Iran) in the form of modern defensive weaponry, a NATO-like defense pact, support for a civilian nuclear program on Saudi soil.
However, implicit in the talks going forward was the Saudi’s abandonment of their theretofore insistence on Israel’s agreement to a Palestinian state before any normalization agreement could be finalized. Indeed, the Saudis virtually conceded in recent public statements that they would go ahead with normalization and work towards a Palestinian state afterwards. In effect they made a strategic decision that their future lay with the U.S. and Israel and not with the Palestinians.
For that reason, the Palestinians, having lost their veto power over normalization, found themselves in a desperate situation and, we believe, came up with a primitive alternative to thwart normalization, which, as it turned, out also reflected their innate savagery and lust for killing Jews.
Yet the reality of where the Saudi national interest lay – that is, in rapprochement with Israel – has not and will not substantively change as the result of the Hamas attack and Israel’s military response. So, in a perfect world, the Saudis should want to pursue normalization if only to nail down the U.S. component, and we believe that it behooves both Israel and the United States to move mountains to tap into this reality.
Unfortunately, the prognosis is not good. As the New York Times has reported, the Saudis have carefully avoided condemning the Hamas attack, despite Secretary of State Antony Blinken having urged that they clearly do so. They said only generically that civilians should not be targeted and stressed “the need for all parties to respect international humanitarian law.”
In fact, the Saudis also went on to blame Israel, saying that the Saudi government had repeatedly warned “of the dangers of the explosion of the situation as a result of the continued occupation, the deprivation of the Palestinian people and their legitimate right and the repetition of systemic provocations against its sanctities.”
On the other hand, Dennis Ross, the veteran U.S. Middle East diplomat, said Saudi officials appear to be taking a wait-and-see stance before continuing with the normalization efforts. He said based on his discussions things are “on hold.” He said much will depend on the number of Palestinian casualties and whether Hezbollah enters the fray, with resulting Lebanese casualties.
It is noteworthy, and encouraging, that the Biden Administration is pushing forward. The Times reports that on several Sunday talk shows, President Biden’s top aides reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to normalization even as Israel prepares for the start of a full-scale war against Hamas. That normalization works against Iran is hardly debatable.
Blinken, for one, cast normalization as a choice between regional peace and the terrorism carried out by Hamas. He said it would change the prospects of an entire region far into the future by broadening Israel’s relations with Arab countries. “Now who’s opposed to that? Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran. So I think that speaks volumes.”
And the issue of Iran’s fingerprints being on all of this is also something that needs to be addressed now as part of any more than superficial analysis of the Hamas attack and an Israeli response. Citing senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Iranian security officials helped plan and green lighted Saturday’s surprise Hamas attack on Israel. Limiting the response to a military one against Hamas is thus to ignore a key factor in the mix.
But incongruously, Biden has also recently released $6 billion to the Iranians and otherwise eased economic sanctions against the radical Islamic regime. And he continues to obsess about renewing the nuclear deal with them. This does nothing if not undermine outrages toward the current Hamas massacre.
Recent events may make concluding a normalization agreement more problematical at this time. But the main ingredients for one are still there. Biden should provide the incentives going forward to make it happen.
