The January 3, 2026 U.S. military operation to capture Nicolas Maduro was many things, the chief being that the Trump-ordered action marked a radical shift in American foreign policy – a bold, high-stakes application of what is being called the “Donroe Doctrine.” By removing a dictator who long served as a beachhead for U.S. adversaries, the geopolitical map of the Western Hemisphere was necessarily profoundly changed. Just how and by how much will unfold in the near future. But several things are already clear.
For decades, Venezuela served as a strategic hub for China, Russia, Cuba and perhaps most significantly for Iran. Thus, the removal of Maduro effectively disrupted this “axis of aggressors” in the Americas in practical ways. But given the current disarray in Iran, the most immediate impact will likely be in how it affects the thinking of those in power in the Islamic regime and those now acting to overthrow it (that is, if the U.S. doesn’t take matters directly into its own hands, in which case all bets are off).
Although predictions about these sorts of things are always risky, the odds are that it will encourage the rebels and induce the government to try and make a deal with them. If all of this proves successful and leads to the fall of the Ayatollah then the dangers to U.S. and Israeli interests will recede, and the influence of both in the region will be enhanced immeasurably as other nations take due notice.
We will know more within the next few days, but clearly these are fraught times.