Thankfully, the predictions of widespread violence in response to the U.S. announcement of its recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the launching of steps to relocate the American Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem didn’t materialize.
To be sure, there were condemnations in world capitals galore, and an abortive effort – abortive thanks to an American veto – to pass a UN Security Council Resolution calling for a rescission of the recognition.
But for all the tumult, the reaction in practical terms was relatively muted. That in itself is a sharp rebuke to those who long warned of an enraged Muslim world seeking revenge if Jerusalem were recognized as Israel’s capital or the American embassy moved there. From where we sit, this non-development is also a strong indication that there is less interest than one might think around the Middle East in the Palestinian cause. Surely here was a strong incentive for those supporting the Palestinian agenda to demonstrate that there was a steep cost to be paid for recognition.
The reaction of the Palestinians was much more robust but also mostly non-violent, doubtless, partly because of a lack of capacity and fear of Israeli retaliation. And perhaps equally important, they had to steer clear of violence so as not to compromise an image as peace-loving partners in the effort to secure a peace agreement.
Understandably, the Palestinians railed against the American action, saying Washington was taking sides in the conflict and could no longer be an honest broker in trying to forge a solution. But even if not surprising, their complaint is hard to take seriously. How is it favoring Israel by acknowledging the 50-year control Israel has had over all of Jerusalem and the West Bank in the seven decades since Partition? By acting differently, would not the U.S. have been guilty of favoring the Palestinians, who have never ruled over an inch of the disputed territories?
As we’ve noted before, President Trump’s action tells the Palestinians that the train, for them, has left the station and the only way they can reverse its direction is by negotiating a different result with Israel. He said as much when he noted that the U.S. would go along with any agreement Israel and the Palestinians worked out between themselves.
And while there was calculated ambiguity in Mr. Trump’s reference to Jerusalem as the capital of Israel without any reference to “east” or “west,” the situation became even more ominous for the Palestinians the other day when White House officials were quoted as saying it is likely the Western Wall – which lies beyond the Green Line – will end up being part of Israel since they cannot conceive of Israel ever relinquishing control.
Some observers are quoting an unnamed “senior administration official” to the effect that after a short “cooling off” period, the Trump administration will try to get both sides to the negotiating table. To borrow from a familiar Trump phrase, “Let’s see what happens.”