Israel has long claimed an existential national security interest in preventing Iran from building a nuclear arsenal. And there can now be little doubt that Israel had the capacity – and the will – to neutralize Iran’s nuclear sites, since it struck that country’s military infrastructure last month in retaliation to a missile and rocket attack against Israel by Iran. Indeed, in the event, the attack spanned three key provinces, and not only ended up devastating the bulk of Iran’s self-defense capabilities, but also in the process, confirmed that no place in Iran was ever safe from Israeli warplanes.
Yet, despite ongoing Iranian vows to destroy the Jewish state and sponsorship of continuous rocket and missile attacks by its terrorist proxies, Israel refrained from hitting Iran’s nuclear sites – when it plainly had and continues to have the ability to do so – leaving the issue to continue to fester to another day when Israel’s military superiority might not be as decisive. And, as is well-known, Israel’s forbearance is attributed to significant U.S. pressure to avoid hitting Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities.
So, while the Biden administration never misses an opportunity to state that it will not allow Iran to become a nuclear power and that a preventative military option is “on the table,” it has long been apparent that imposing economic sanctions is as far as they are prepared to go.
However, comments the other day by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, underscore that by restraining Israel, a historic opportunity to address a looming threat to the west and world peace is being squandered.
After initially downplaying the damage Israel inflicted on Iran in response to Iran’s October 1 missile barrage and hinting that there would be no further response, reportedly, last week, as the extent of the damage became clearer, Khamenei said; “The enemies, whether the Zionist regime or the United States of America, will definitely receive a tooth-breaking response to what they are doing to Iran and the Iranian nation and to the resistance front [i.e. the Teheran-backed terror groups Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis].”
Significantly, as reported in The New York Post, the comments came a day after one of his top advisers issued a warning that the country could alter its policies on using nuclear weapons if the threat seemed big enough: “If an existential threat arises, Iran will modify its nuclear doctrine, we have the capability to build weapons and have no issue in this regard.”
Perhaps even more significantly, the Khamenei comment came within a day of a U.S. announcement that the Pentagon is sending additional fighter jets and naval destroyers to the Middle East.
Plainly, Iran is chafing over having to face the reality that it is currently vastly outmatched by the U.S. and even Israel and is looking for a way to radically change the calculus. And it is also clear that they are eyeing a nuclear weapons capacity as the way to change that.
When Israel struck Iran and laid bare its weaknesses even as they contributed to it, it seemed that the die was cast and dealing with Iran’s toxic nuclear aspirations was the logical next order of business. We should know more about what’s coming as the new administration in Washington takes shape.
