Those who criticized President Trump’s decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal (the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action”) and reimpose U.S. sanctions on Iran may well have to reconsider their position. They posited that Iran would resume nuclear development and that U.S. sanctions would prove ineffective inasmuch as the European participating countries would continue to honor JCPOA’s sanctions relief components.
Yet, since President Trump’s move, Iran’s economy is tanking, causing ever-growing protests along the length and breadth of Iran over the diversion of scarce resources to fund terrorism across the Middle East, back Syria’s government, and seek overall hegemony in the region. Significantly, the demonstrators are pointedly calling for more attention to be paid to domestic concerns and not to the alleged depredations of the U.S. and Israel. Many have even taken to chanting “Death To Palestine.”
Businesses around the world meanwhile are balking at investing in Iran out of fear of running afoul of U.S. sanctions. After all, if the choice is between doing business in the U.S. or Iran, doing business with the former is the overwhelming logical choice.
Now it looks like politics will follow the money. Perhaps Mr. Trump figured that out. Perhaps Messers. Obama and Kerry were too anxious to concede almost everything to Iran in the JCPOA negotiations in order to halt its nuclear development. Perhaps they overplayed a fear of having to go to war to stop the Iranians. Perhaps they underplayed the economic dynamic that would likely kick in
Let’s see what unfolds.