It is widely believed that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine as part of his recurrent dream of bringing the countries of the former Soviet Union back within Russia’s orbit, demonstrating Russia’s superpower military prowess, forever weakening NATO, and reestablishing Eastern Europe as a Russian sphere of influence.
Undoubtedly he is being forced to do some quick recalculating.
If anything, the Ukrainian invasion has exposed Russian weakness: it is not even a close second to the United States militarily, and it is certainly unable to achieve Putin’s goals. Can anyone still imagine Russia controlling Ukraine without an impossibly costly full-blown military occupation – if then? Or that Eastern European countries will be cowed by a Russia that has been so humiliated by Ukraine? We don’t think so. Indeed, we fully expect the reverse to prove to be true.
Moreover, the media has been merciless and exacting in depicting the horrors Russia has been inflicting on helpless – sometimes directly targeted – Ukranian civilians. As a result, Putin and Russia have quickly become pariahs to an extent rarely seen since World War II.
Add to this the fact that the U.S. and other Western nations have begun supplying Ukraine with vast amounts of both defensive and offensive weapons, sure to energize an already highly motivated Ukranian military.
And that isn’t to mention the incoming catastrophic impact of the economic full-court press being mounted against Russia by, ironically, a newly-invigorated NATO and a united European Union. The Russian banking system is increasingly tanking by the day; and much of the Russian political, military, financial, and industrial establishments have been paralyzed by crippling sanctions.
To be sure, Russia has a formidable nuclear arsenal, and Putin being in saber-rattling mode over the past few days as reality is closing in. But we have to assume that for all of his legacy ambitions, he is not about to push the button or even to engage the U.S. and the West conventionally over enforcing a Russian orbit in Eastern Europe – similar to the U.S. refusal to send in American troops to defend the Ukraine.
So what do Putin and President Joe Biden likely see as the finale for this saga with Ukraine?
Even if Russia’s military might could ultimately overcome Ukraine’s defenses, irreparable damage has already been done to Putin’s mission and he is likely looking to cut his losses. In fact, this would go a long way in explaining the odd meeting he had last week with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. We were intrigued by the news that Bennett made a surprise visit to Moscow last week to discuss the war with Putin, and that the trip was coordinated with the United States, Germany, France and Ukraine.
It’s not hard to understand why Israel would like to broker a deal ending the conflict. Israel has long enjoyed freedom of action in mounting airstrikes in Syria countering Iran’s and Hezbollah’s military presences on the Golan border and the threat of terrorist incursions. Israel would never be able to do what it had to do without an understanding with Russia, which has formidable military resources in Syria. Russia is a nominal ally of both Syria and Iran. Why Russia cooperates with Israel in Syria is not all that apparent; but we hypothesize Russia is willing to tolerate an active Israeli presence because that means the U.S. will not feel compelled to maintain a military presence of their own.
Israel recently incurred Putin’s wrath when, as it had to, it condemned the invasion of Ukraine in the UN General Assembly and sent significant humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Putin responded by publicly declaring Israel’s claim to the Golan to be invalid – and this even though Israel had pointedly refused to vote against Russia in the Security Council or to send weapons to Ukraine.
Taking all of this into account, Israel has a strong reason to seek the role of mediator between Russia and Ukraine: it can not only possibly massage its relations with Russia, but it would also be an enormous feather in its diplomatic cap if it could actually accomplish something between the two warring neighbors as well.
But why would Putin want to meet with Bennett?
Perhaps it was because he was looking for an opening to get past this Ukraine blunder and begin the process of rebuilding Russia’s shattered economy and his own world image. Israel would be a natural intermediary: it has quiet connections to Russia and is, after all, America’s closest ally in the world. Israel also has shared cultural ties to Ukraine. And, not to put too fine a point on it, Bennett and Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky are the world’s only two Jews at the head of national governments.
For the United States, in this age of interconnected world economies, the honing of a potent international economic weapon and the support of a united Western world willing to wield it might yield the means to deal with the modern day phenomena of major nations turning rogue and threatening their immediate neighbors (think China and Taiwan).
Hopefully we are reading the tea leaves correctly in Europe and there will be some point to all of this carnage. We will soon see; for now, can only pray.
