Vice President Mike Pence received a lot of well-earned kudos for his trip to the Middle East. To be sure, he basically doubled down on President Trump’s tectonic shift on Jerusalem. Yet he is skillfully performing a crucial task at a critical time. And there will be more such occasions in the near future for similar timely action.
The success of the president’s initiative, for all intents and purposes, will rest on whether the Palestinians and the Arab world generally perceive the possibility of watering down the Trump plan. Put another way, will the passage of time bring with it the typical diplomatic slippage and compromises that have historically undermined even the most high-minded of intentions and declarations?
So it was immediately important for everyone to be informed that despite the dismay of the international community and the worries concerning potential Arab violence and a rejection of future U.S. involvement in the “peace process,” nothing has changed since the president’s announcement.
And this is what the vice president, with his reiteration of what the president had declared, accomplished. Thus, there can be no doubt that as far as the U.S. is concerned, Jerusalem continues as presumptively a part of Israel and the American Embassy will be moved to Jerusalem, sooner rather than later.
But there are built-in headwinds in the Trump plan. The president has invited the Palestinians to negotiate over the issue of Jerusalem and this, doubtless, is why the reaction in the Arab world has been so surprisingly muted. But the expectation of negotiations over Jerusalem should give pause.
Along with declaring U.S. recognition of Jerusalem as the “capital of Israel,” Mr. Trump also said, “We are not taking a position on any final status issues, including the specific boundaries of the sovereignty in Jerusalem, or the resolution of contested borders. Those questions are up to the parties involved.”
What if, against all odds, the Palestinians actually get serious about negotiating a peace agreement? Will President Trump hold to his vow never to pressure either side to accept that which it thinks it shouldn’t?
What if Israel insists on following through on its annexation of all of Jerusalem, no matter what the Palestinians offer? Would the Palestinians believe President Trump might at that point reconsider? Would they see it as an opening to attempt to shift the balance of negotiations in their favor and would it feed their recalcitrance?
So the need for continuing reinforcement of the president’s policy is readily apparent.
In any case, the Trump plan is rather ingenious. It incentivizes the Palestinians to get serious about negotiations by stripping away the fictions that have underlain the wholly unrealistic Palestinian positions – and by acknowledging that Israel is in the catbird seat if the Palestinians persist in their self-delusion.
We were intrigued by a comment Jordan’s King Abdullah made to Vice President Pence during their meeting in Amman. While insisting that East Jerusalem has to be the capital of a future Palestinian state, the king nevertheless went on to say, “We hope that the U.S. will reach out and find the right way to move forward in these challenging circumstances.” Maybe King Abdullah already gets it.
