Since the Hamas attack on October 7, a major preoccupation in the media, overseas and even amongst Israel’s friends and allies seems to have been speculation over what Israel must do – or not do – in order not to provoke Hezbollah.
Indeed, since October 7 Hezbollah has been raining rocket barrages on Israel as well as engaging in daily border raids with ever-increasing frequency, and Israel responded in kind, although with more effect, regularly resulting in Hezbollah military casualties and infrastructure.
Yet, no one reported any ominous signs that things were about to explode into a full-fledged war between Israel and Hezbollah, even after Israel assassinated the Hamas second in command last week who was headquartered in Beirut – along with more than a dozen Hezbollah guards.
However, as the New York Times reported on Monday, concerns for a wider war were now growing after Hezbollah announced that one of its senior commanders – one who had a leading role in managing Hezbollah operations in South Lebanon and the highest-ranking Hezbollah member to be killed by Israel since the Israel-Hamas war began – was killed in an Israeli air strike in Southern Lebanon earlier on Monday.
Even so, it is still not clear what Hezbollah will eventually do, if anything substantial at all. Indeed, from leaks about Israeli military planning over the past few months, it seems that it was Israel that was champing at the bit for a major confrontation with Hezbollah in order to ease the pressure on Israel’s north. In fact, the New York Times is reporting that the concern has long been less about a Hezbollah attack on Israel than an Israeli attack on Israel. The Biden Administration has reportedly told Israel than if Hezbollah comes over the border, Washington will support Israel – but not if it is the other way round.
Indeed, it is said Hezbollah didn’t escalate the back and forth with Israel because it feared the consequences after being afforded a front-row seat to what Israel was able to do in Gaza. Also, United States naval and air forces have been actively drawn into regular tit-for-tat responses to attacks on American and international shipping vessels and personnel by the Hezbollah kindred spirits in the Houthi terrorist group. All are wild cards for Hezbollah who certainly fear the U.S. as a lurking threat to Hezbollah in any confrontation with Israel.
In a sense also, the same analysis would apply to Hezbollah’s patrons, the Iranians. Without the prospect of defeating Israel and or the U.S. on the battlefield, it makes little sense for either to risk the certain devastating costs of stumbling onto it.
In the last analyses though, let’s hope that all of those chayas on the other side retain some measure of rationality.
