Israel and the United States were surprised by the outbreak of the war in Sudan. Their working assumption was that an agreement on the establishment of a civilian government would soon be reached in Sudan, but the negotiations on its establishment failed due to power struggles between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the commander of the Sudanese army, and General Mohammed Hamdan “Hamidati” Dagalo, the commander of the rapid intervention forces, which turned into a war between two armed forces.
In coordination with the United States and the United Arab Emirates, Israel took an unprecedented step and is trying to mediate between two generals who are now the rulers of Sudan and who claim to represent the Sudanese people after they deposed the previous ruler Omar Al-Bashir in a military coup.
Foreign Minister Eli Cohen invited General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, commander of the Sudanese army, and Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, to come to Israel and conduct negotiations on a ceasefire in Sudan through it.
Israel has familiarity with the two sides fighting against each other and can significantly influence both.
Security sources point out that the Israeli Foreign Ministry has a good relationship with General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, with whom it is working on the issue of the normalization agreement, while the Israeli Mossad has a good relationship with Hamidati on security and counter-terrorism issues. It also coordinates operations on the internal situation in Sudan with General Abdel Rahim Dagalo, Hamidati’s brother and deputy in the headquarters of the Rapid Intervention Forces.
Al-Burhan and Hamidati did not reject the Israeli offer outright but did not respond positively, and contact with them continues.
Israel fears the possibility that Sudan will fragment into a long civil war that will not only eliminate any chance of reaching a peace agreement between Israel and Sudan but will destabilize the region.
A Blow to the Normalization Process
Sudan disintegrating into a long civil war could split and divide it into small countries. If this scenario were to materialize, it could mean that a peace agreement between Sudan and Israel would not be signed, which would damage the mutually beneficial normalization process between Israel and the Arab countries, which the axis of resistance led by Iran is trying to thwart.
Media sources in Iran and Hamas spread the conspiracy theory that the Israeli mediation initiative is intended to subject Sudan to Israeli control as part of the Israeli-American effort to split Sudan and Arab countries and to create an Israeli leadership that will lead certain Arab countries politically, economically, and socially.
Yousif Izzat, the political advisor to General Hamidati, gave an interview to the Israeli “Kan” channel a few days ago in which he claimed that the capital Khartoum and the rapid support forces are subject to attack by the Sudanese army just as Israel is subject to attacks by terrorist organizations such as Hamas and other organizations. Izzat was a representative of Sudan at a Jerusalem Center conference recently held in Jerusalem.
Hamas cites the ties of Sudanese generals such as Hamidati to Israel to claim Sudanese leaders are hostile toward Palestinians.
Hamas accuses the Arab countries of standing on the sidelines and not interfering in what is happening in Sudan, which makes it difficult for foreign parties and Israel and the United States to interfere in what is happening in Sudan in an attempt to create a comfortable political reality in Sudan that will serve their interests.
The regional balance of power is now changing in the Middle East, as the United States is gradually withdrawing, and the Iranian axis with China and Russia is increasing in influence.
Therefore, if it is critical that Israel and the United States prevent a protracted civil war in Sudan, which has the potential to destabilize the entire region and undo the normalization process underway since the Abraham Accords.
{Reposted from JCPA}
