Every New Year, Americans everywhere honestly and sincerely make their resolutions. And before January turns into February the vast majority of those resolutions have been broken. People in Crawford, Texas are no exception. George Bush is no exception.
This week the president and his entourage are in the Middle East. George Bush has resolved to set the record straight in that region.
Officially, Bush will be using this, his first official visit to the Middle East since taking office, to “follow up on the progress made at Annapolis in helping Israelis and Palestinian to advance their efforts …”
True enough, the presidential agenda on this trip is to follow through on the work that was begun in Annapolis, but the work begun in Annapolis had less to do with Israelis and Palestinians than it did with the Arab world and Iran.
If this trip were truly all about Israelis and Palestinians, why are Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt all crowded onto the itinerary? The answer comes in the form of a throwaway line in the official announcement outlining the trip which stated the president will use this opportunity “to reaffirm the enduring commitment of the United States to the security of our allies in the Middle East … and our close work with them to combat terrorism and extremism …”
Israeli/Palestinian peace was the premise at Annapolis, but there was a very important and delicate subtext. The administration’s unstated objective was to bring Arab and Muslim countries in concert with the U.S. in an effort to thwart Iran and Iran’s nuclear objectives. And the president almost pulled it off.
He had them in the palm of his hand. George Bush at Annapolis had the most powerful and wealthy Arab nations on the verge of being convinced that he and the United States could actually lead the Arab world in a movement against another Muslim country. He had them almost ready to follow his lead and squelch Iran’s nuclear aspirations. He was, as the saying goes, just about to put the genie back in the bottle.
That support lasted exactly one week, and then the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) was made public. George Bush became his own worst enemy. The Arab countries that had quietly stepped forward to join the U.S. against Iran immediately pulled back. Untold hours of diplomatic work were lost. And now, in the course of an eight-day trip, the president is trying to win it back.
George Bush may have determination and resolve, but his goal of reassuring the Arabs of the region that the Annapolis Conference subtext is actually a primary text and that Washington still stands firmly behind the message delivered in Annapolis – i.e., that Iran is a real threat and that it is crucial to stand shoulder to shoulder against Iran’s development of nuclear technology – has evaporated into thin Middle East air.
No visit, no cajoling, no pleading will succeed in convincing the Arab world for a second time to join the enemy against one of its own.
As for “helping Israelis and Palestinians advance their efforts,” the sentiment is sincere, but the president knows the situation. He knows that both Israelis and Palestinians will complain about non-compliance and about how the other side has broken the agreement – again.
Israel and the Palestinians must know that Bush, like the many American presidents before him who sought to bring peace to the Middle East, is driven by American interests. Right now American interests lie in trying to isolate Iran and unify Arabs against that Islamic state. Before putting pressure on Iran, the Arab world will demand that the United States pressure Israel to accommodate the Palestinians. And despite his affinity for Israel and his religious love of Jerusalem, this president of the United States will agree to those Arab demands.
Jerusalem shuts down when a U.S. president comes to town. I have sat on special buses accompanying the presidential motorcade as it drives along. Israelis line the streets, waving. I’ve waved back.
But the excitement isn’t there on this trip. Once again, the outcome is predictable. In the aftermath of their visit, Bush and Condoleezza Rice will pressure Israel to move ahead on the road map despite reservations and despite lack of follow-up on the part of the Palestinians, especially on security issues and the Palestinians’ lack of control over their terrorists.