Less than 24 hours after taking office, U.S. President Donald Trump dismissed four members of the administration, including Brian Hook, his former special envoy for Iran.
Hook played a key role in implementing the “maximum pressure” policy against Iran from 2018 to 2020 and recently led Trump’s transition team at the State Department.
Trump has yet to finalize his team handling the Iran portfolio or determine whether to impose new sanctions or pursue diplomacy to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Iran has adopted a cautious approach, signaling its willingness to resume negotiations while attempting to engage Western powers in prolonged diplomatic discussions.
Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal Affairs Kazem Gharib Abadi stated on January 21, 2025, that Iran intends to continue talks with European powers—France, Germany, and the UK—following recent exploratory discussions in Geneva.
Abadi emphasized that the logical course of action is to reopen talks on lifting sanctions and returning to compliance, asserting that Tehran is ready if other parties share the same commitment.
Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has also urged Iran to reach an understanding with the Trump administration to resolve the nuclear standoff.
Since Trump’s electoral victory, a debate has emerged within Iran’s political elite regarding the country’s strategy.
The conservative camp, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), remains wary of Trump’s intentions. In contrast, the reformist camp, headed by President Masoud Pezeshkian, views Trump’s presidency as a potential negotiation opportunity.
Despite concerns over a return to the “maximum pressure” policy, some Iranian officials believe Trump, known for his business-driven approach, might be open to striking a new deal.
However, lingering distrust remains due to Trump’s previous withdrawal from the nuclear agreement.
Contrary to expectations, Trump has not issued any executive orders or imposed new sanctions on Iran.
Some in Iran interpret this as an indication that Trump is focusing on domestic issues and fulfilling campaign promises, though there are no guarantees that this stance will continue.
Trump’s return to the White House signals significant shifts in U.S. foreign policy following years of regional turmoil. He desires to reduce tensions, particularly in the Middle East.
Even before taking office, he pressured Netanyahu to agree to a deal with Hamas for the release of hostages and a ceasefire in Gaza.
Trump has made clear that Iran remains a top priority.
Just hours before his inauguration, he declared that Iran was economically bankrupt during his previous term and incapable of taking action.
He previously vowed to prevent Tehran from obtaining nuclear weapons, reaffirming this stance in an October 2024 interview with Al-Arabiya.
National Security Adviser Mike Waltz stated in a CBS interview on January 20, 2025, that the administration intends to take decisive action against Iran soon.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has also called for the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran fears a return to Trump’s hardline approach. On January 17, 2025, President Pezeshkian stressed the importance of dialogue with the United States.
In November 2024, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated that Iran has no aspiration for nuclear weapons and emphasized the need for mutual trust.
Analysts in the Arab world predict that Trump will initially seek to resolve Middle Eastern conflicts before addressing Iran’s nuclear threat, likely through military rather than diplomatic means.
Israeli political sources believe a military strike on Iran is urgent, citing threats from Iran-backed groups such as the Houthis in Yemen.
However, Trump did say on January 23, 2025, that “it would be nice” to solve the problems with Iran without an Israeli attack on its military installations.
“It would really be nice if that could be worked out without having to go that further step,” he told reporters in the White House while signing executive orders.
A senior Israeli official emphasized the need for the United States to adopt a tougher stance, noting Iran’s alleged attempt to assassinate Trump in retaliation for the 2020 killing of IRGC General Qasem Soleimani, which U.S. security officials reportedly thwarted.
Western intelligence sources suggest that Iran is under significant pressure and has toned down its aggressive rhetoric.
Tehran fears potential economic sanctions targeting its oil industry, which could pave the way for a U.S. or Israeli military strike on its nuclear facilities and regional proxies.
{Reposted from JCFA}
