However, should the final results show that Netanyahu’s “natural coalition” fall short of a majority, his job will prove especially difficult. He has become a polarizing figure, particularly among the political elite, where several one-time allies have joined the opposition.
In the last election in March 2021, ideologically right-wing parties garnered 72 seats. A Likud leader who controlled 30 of those seats should have had no trouble building a coalition. However, leaders of two of those parties were former Netanyahu allies turned adversaries who categorically refused to join him.
Then, the left-wing opposition, despite falling well short of 60 mandates, formed a government thanks to the unlikely support of Naftali Bennett of the right-wing Yamina Party, and Ra’am, an Arab Islamist party.
Some said that coalition, which included parties from across the political spectrum, spelled the end of ideological politics in Israel in favor of a more practical politics. Coalitions would form around what could be done – building better roads and policing – rather than staking out unbridgeable positions on settlements or a Palestinian state.
However, the breakup of the coalition over religious and Arab issues after only a year suggested the opposite; that parties holding opposite ideological viewpoints can’t cohere despite the benefits of power and the success in keeping Netanyahu out of government.
The political deadlock over the recent elections reflected Israeli voter deadlock. Despite a series of elections – Tuesday’s was the fifth in less than four years – the public didn’t change its voting patterns, even though it doesn’t appear to share the same animosity towards Netanyahu that the political elite does. Polls consistently show a large majority picking Netanyahu as the most suitable leader to serve as prime minister.
The public wasn’t getting what it wanted. Last time around, it voted right and received a Bennett-Lapid coalition. To ensure a right-wing government, enough Israeli voters would have to choose Likud or one of its reliable religious partners. If the exit polls prove correct, the public has finally done that.
If the results of the exit polls prove transitory and the public hasn’t made the necessary change, will its political leaders?
Benny Gantz tried it after the March 2020 election. As leader of Blue and White and head of the opposition with 33 Knesset seats, he surprised everyone by reaching across the aisle and joining with Netanyahu in a power-sharing agreement.
Yet, Gantz has become a cautionary tale. He quit the government after concluding that Netanyahu wouldn’t fulfill his end of the bargain. In the next election, Gantz’s party dropped to 8 seats and leadership of the opposition passed to Yair Lapid of the Yesh Atid Party, who had refused to join with Netanyahu. The lesson politicians likely have drawn is that intransigence pays.
If nothing changes, Lapid continues as interim prime minister until the next election. That could be many months away.
