But that strategy has never been shown to work in a field of multiple major candidates. For Rudy, the emergence of McCain and Huckabee was like the offense in football suddenly changing its formation. The defense must then quickly respond in kind or they’re likely to be overwhelmed.
Team Rudy decided to stay the course and failed to make the necessary adjustment. Rudy then appeared to be the only candidate who was “missing in action.” In the states he avoided, he gave the impression, rightly or wrongly, that he just didn’t care about them and their people. Nationwide, he gave the unavoidable impression that he alone among the candidates was afraid to take on all comers anywhere and everywhere. That is just not going to cut the mustard, especially for someone touting his leadership skills in standing up to America’s enemies.
Even as Rudy began sinking like a rock, his campaign would not adjust. Nevada represented a golden opportunity. It happened that its primary was on the same day as South Carolina’s “first in the South,” which all the other candidates were focusing on. Even though it had more delegates up for grabs than New Hampshire, Nevada felt like a stepchild. Indeed, the Las Vegas Review-Journal, the state’s largest newspaper, complained that Nevada was being ignored and declared that any candidate who just invests a little time in the state was likely to win.
With only two major media markets, Las Vegas and Reno-Tahoe, Nevada is easy to cover in a short period of time. Described as conservative on fiscal matters and national defense, but socially liberal, Nevada seemed ideal for Rudy, but he ignored it. Sensing he wasn’t going to win in South Carolina, it was instead Mitt Romney who dashed out to Nevada, gave it a little attention, and picked up an easy win. Ironically, Rudy still managed to win his only convention delegate in Nevada.
Sticking to his course in Florida, Rudy explained that his strategy there was based, at least in part, on the fact that the Sunshine State is now home to well over a million former New Yorkers. It’s been said that Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties are New York City’s southernmost suburbs.
What Rudy may have forgotten, however, is that just as registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans 5-1 in New York City, there is no reason not to assume that is likewise true of Florida’s ex-New Yorkers. And the Florida primary, unlike the other early ones, was open only to registered Republicans. Further, Florida’s Republicans are largely centered in the northern part of the state, an area that is “northern” in name only. (Indeed, some have described Northern Florida as the deepest part of the Deep South.)
Apart from the Cuban-American community in and around Miami (America’s only mostly-Republican Hispanic group), the demographics of Florida’s Republicans are not all that different from those of South Carolina.
Unfortunately for Rudy – the Republican candidate most popular among Jewish voters – he bet it all in Florida and lost. In the movies, one often sees a desperate person putting his last coin in a slot machine and hitting the jackpot. Alas, it rarely works that way in real life.