In his enumeration of the various leadership roles within the nation that would take shape after his death, Moshe not only mentions the priest, judge and king but also the prophet:
“The Lord your G-d will raise up for you a prophet like me from among your own brothers. You must listen to him” (Deut. 18:15).
Moshe would not be the last of the prophets. He would have successors. Historically this was so. From the days of Shmuel to the Second Beit HaMikdash period, each generation gave rise to men – and sometimes women – who spoke G-d’s word with immense courage, unafraid to censure kings, criticize priests, or rebuke an entire generation for its lack of faith and moral integrity.
There was, however, an obvious question: How does one tell a true prophet from a false one? Unlike kings or priests, prophets did not derive authority from formal office. Their authority lay in their personality, their ability to give voice to the word of G-d, their self-evident inspiration. But precisely because a prophet has privileged access to the word others cannot hear, the visions others cannot see, the real possibility existed of false prophets. Charismatic authority is inherently destabilizing. What was there to prevent a fraudulent, or even a sincere but mistaken, figure, able to perform signs and wonders and move the people by the power of his words, from taking the nation in a wrong direction, misleading others and perhaps even himself?
There are several dimensions to this question. One in particular is touched on in our parshah, namely the prophet’s ability to foretell the future. This is how Moshe puts it: “You may say to yourselves, ‘How can we know when a message has not been spoken by the Lord?’ If what a prophet proclaims in the name of the Lord does not take place or come true, that is a message the Lord has not spoken. That prophet has spoken presumptuously. Do not be afraid of him.”
On the face of it, the test is simple: if what the prophet predicts comes to pass, he is a true prophet – if not, not. Clearly, though, it was not that simple.
The classic case is the Book of Yonah. Yonah is commanded by G-d to warn the people of Nineveh that their wickedness is about to bring disaster on them. Yonah attempts to flee, but fails. Eventually he goes to Nineveh and utters the words G-d has commanded him to say: “Forty more days and Nineveh will be destroyed.” The people repent and the city is spared. Yonah, however, is deeply dissatisfied.
“But Yonah was greatly displeased and became angry. He prayed to the Lord, ‘O Lord, is this not what I said when I was still at home? That is why I was so quick to flee to Tarshish. I knew that you are a gracious and compassionate G-d, slow to anger and abounding in love, a G-d who relents from sending calamity. Now, O Lord, take away my life, for it is better for me to die than to live” (Yonah 4: 1-3).
Yonah’s complaint can be understood in two ways. First, he was distressed that G-d had forgiven the people. They were, after all, wicked. They deserved to be punished. Why then did a mere change of heart release them from the punishment that was their due?
Second, he had been made to look like a fool. He had told them that in 40 days the city would be destroyed. It was not. G-d’s mercy made nonsense of his prediction.
Yonah is wrong to be displeased; that much is clear. G-d says, in the rhetorical question with which the book concludes: “Should I not be concerned about that great city?” Should I not be merciful? Should I not forgive? What then becomes of the criterion Moshe lays down for distinguishing between a true and false prophet? Yonah had proclaimed that the city would be destroyed in 40 days. It wasn’t; he really did speak the word of G-d. How can this be so?
The answer is given in the book of Jeremiah. Jeremiah had been prophesying national disaster. The people had drifted from their religious vocation, and the result would be defeat and exile. It was a difficult and demoralizing message for people to hear. A false prophet, Chananiah son of Azzur, arose, preaching the opposite. Babylon, Israel’s enemy, would soon be defeated. Within two years the crisis would be over. Jeremiah knew that it was not so, and that Chananiah was telling the people what they wanted to hear, not what they needed to hear. He addressed the assembled people:
“He said, ‘Amen! May the Lord do so! May the Lord fulfill the words you have prophesied by bringing the articles of the Lord’s house and all the exiles back to this place from Babylon. Nevertheless, listen to what I have to say in your hearing and in the hearing of all the people: From early times the prophets who preceded you and me have prophesied war, disaster and plague against many countries and great kingdoms. But the prophet who prophesies peace will be recognized as one truly sent by the Lord – only if his prediction comes true.’ ”
Jeremiah makes a fundamental distinction between good news and bad. It is easy to prophesy disaster. If the prophecy comes true, then you have spoken the truth. If it does not, then you can say that G-d relented and forgave. A negative prophecy cannot be refuted, but a positive one can. If the good foreseen comes to pass, then the prophecy is true. If it does not, then you cannot say, “G-d changed His mind” because G-d does not retract from a promise He has made of good, or peace, or return.
It is therefore only when the prophet offers a positive vision that he can be tested. That is why Yonah was wrong to believe he had failed when his negative prophecy failed to come true.
Fundamental conclusions follow from this. A prophet is not an oracle; a prophecy is not a prediction. Precisely because Judaism believes in free will, the human future can never be unfailingly predicted. People are capable of change. G-d forgives. As we say in our prayers on the High Holy Days: “Prayer, penitence and charity avert the evil decree.” There is no decree that cannot be revoked. A prophet does not foretell. He warns. A prophet does not speak to predict future catastrophe, but rather to avert it. If a prediction comes true, it has succeeded. If a prophecy comes true, it has failed.
The second consequence is no less far-reaching. The real test of prophecy is not bad news but good. Calamity, catastrophe, disaster prove nothing. Anyone can foretell these things without risking his reputation or authority. It is only by the realization of a positive vision that prophecy is put to the test. So it was with Israel’s prophets. They were realists, not optimists. They warned of the dangers that lay ahead. But they were also, without exception, agents of hope. They could see beyond the catastrophe to the consolation. That is the test of a true prophet.