There is lots of evidence that Hilary Rodham Clinton, the former senator from New York, first lady and secretary of state, will to try to win the Democratic nomination for president in 2016. Even before formally announcing her candidacy, she’s been campaigning and making waves, all in an attempt to keep her name not only in the news, but mentioned as a “potential Democratic presidential nominee.”
But I’ll go out on a limb: Hilary Clinton will NOT win the Democratic nomination in 2016. Here’s why.
1. Age
On January 20, 2016, Inauguration Day, Clinton will be 68 years old. That would make her nearly the oldest person to ascend the presidency, second only (by several months) to Ronald Reagan. (By comparison, Stanley Ann Dunham, Barack’s late mother, would have been just 66 years old when her son became president in 2008).
In some important ways, that should conceivably give Clinton an advantage over her competitors: With age comes wisdom, and the knowledge of how to choose political battles carefully, both on the international stage and in the domestic arena. After a stint in the Senate and four tough years as Secretary of State (not to mention eight more years as First Lady, spent in the inner circle of presidential decision making), she brings to the table a deep knowledge of American political and economic interests in Latin America, Asia, Europe and especially in the Middle East.
But at age 68, there will be strong questions about Clinton’s ability to withstand the day-to-day pressures of the presidency, her ability to command the US military through a difficult period of adjustment (and perhaps reduction, if Defence Secretary Hagel’s recommendations come to fruition) and her strength to clearly define and defend US interests in a rapidly changing world. Especially when there are serious questions about her…
2. Health
Unlike Ronald Reagan, who’s most serious health scare as president occurred as the result of an assassination attempt in 1981, Hilary Clinton had a scare in 2013 when doctors discovered a blood clot between her brain and her skull. Since then, rumours have persisted that the blood clot has developed into a tumor. Government officials and the Clinton family have strongly denied the rumours, but the notion that Clinton is simply not healthy enough to withstand the demands of the presidency, and certainly not for eight years, will dog her campaign. Even Bill Clinton’s insistence that he would only be “Hilary’s first husband”, and Chelsea’s insistence that her mother “exud[es] the energy, the vibrancy, and certainly the mental acuity” to be president” couldn’t mask the legitimate concerns that Clinton is up to the pressures of a campaign or of public office. The lady (or, at least, her minions) doth protest too much, methinks.
3. Not Likeable
There is no nice way to put this: Hilary Clinton is simply not likeable. She never has been. Starting in 1992 with her first term as First Lady, too many people have viewed her as an opportunist, not a public servant. Her husband, President Bill Clinton, appointed her to head a national task force to revamp America’s healthcare system despite the fact that she had no background in healthcare policy (or any policy background, for that matter).
Later, in 2001, she rode Bill’s coattails into the Senate as junior senator from New York, despite never having lived in that state, and despite the fact that her primary qualification for the job seemed to have been eight years as the president’s wife (supporters will point out, correctly, that Clinton is an accomplished woman in her own right, having attended Yale law school. But that was nearly 30 years before her election to the Senate, and that qualification played little part in her campaign in New York).