A new pre-election poll issued on Monday leaves no option for the next government other than one headed by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu with the help of Haredi parties.
Here is the lineup according to the “Panels” poll conducted the Knesset Channel :
Labor-Livni – 23
Likud – 21
Jewish Home – 16
Yesh Atid (Yair Lapid) – 11
Kulanu (Moshe Kahlon) – 9
Yisrael Beitenu – 7
Meretz – 7
Arab parties – 10
Yehadut HaTorah (Haredi) 7
Shas – 5
Eli Yishai – 4
The Labor party, headed by Yitzchak Herzog with his new sidekick Tzipi Livni, cannot form a majority the Haredi parties, which won’t happen unless it can convince two of four parties – Yair Lapid ,Yisrael Beiteinu’s Avigdor Lieberman and Meretz – to agree, which as likely as snow in July.
The center-right ring camp has less of a problem with the Haredi parties.
Adding up Likud, Jewish Home, Yisrael Beiteinu and Kahlon comes up with the non-magical number of 55, six less than the majority that is needed to form the government.
The three Haredi parties are in the driver’s seat for the time being, and if the results in March will be similar to those of today, they will dictate the terms of the next coalition.
If that happens, Lapid and Livni will rue the day they worked against the coalition of which they were a part.
The polls are not meaningless and actually are a factor in how people will vote. If voters see that the next government will be under the thumb of Haredi partiers, they might start shifting their votes.
Supporters of Yesh Atid and Labor-Livni might shift a bit to Kahlon, possibly enough to give Netanyahu a majority of 61 without the Haredi parties.
Herzog, Livni and Lapid have a problem because there is not much they can take from other parties.