Except the Iran version says nothing about rolling back anything. It also celebrates the fact that the 20% enriched uranium stays in the country, and that the deal recognizes Iran’s right to enrich in the future. So, who’s lying?
The White House says: “The concessions Iran has committed to make as part of this first step will also provide us with increased transparency and intrusive monitoring of its nuclear program. In the past, the concern has been expressed that Iran will use negotiations to buy time to advance their program. Taken together, these first step measures will help prevent Iran from using the cover of negotiations to continue advancing its nuclear program as we seek to negotiate a long-term, comprehensive solution that addresses all of the international community’s concerns.”
That last thing, the “long-term, comprehensive solution,” that’s never going to happen. Here’s what will happen: Iran will have a month or two of dedicated adherence to every minute aspect of the agreement. Meanwhile, Chinese, Russian, European and American corporations will be drawn in, to usher an economic boom in Iran that country hasn’t seen in at least a decade. The State Dept. talk about $7 or $8 billion in a combination of unfrozen Iranian assets and the removal of sanctions – that’s going to be more like $50 billion this summer. It’s just the nature of business.
After 2 months of excellent behavior, Iran will start cheating. Small. Mistakes, really, more than cheating, human error. Inspectors would be told at the last minute they can’t come in, try again tomorrow. Elements will be moved without notice, on account of how forgetful Iranians can sometimes be. I’m not making this up, this was precisely the modus operandi of the Iranian nuclear program under the guidance of Hassan Rouhani.
In 2003, Iran’s foreign minister Kamal Kharazi established a nuclear team with Hassan Rouhani in charge, with special powers to formulate a comprehensive plan for Iran’s interactions with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Subsequently, negotiations between Iran and three European states. Rouhani and his team based their efforts on dialogue and confidence building. As a result, they prevented further escalation of accusations against Iran, and blocked a report of Iran’s nuclear case to the United Nations Security Council. For the purpose of “confidence building,” parts of Iran’s nuclear activities were voluntarily suspended at several junctures.
In addition to building confidence, insisting on Iran’s rights, reducing international pressures and the possibility of war, and preventing Iran’s case from being reported to the UN Security Council, Iran succeeded in completing its nuclear fuel cycle and took groundbreaking steps to reach what many considered the point of no return in developing a nuclear weapon.
Remember, Rouhani was successful in cheating the West and giving the Iranian nuclear program breathing room to thrive—even as the GW Bush Administration was preparing for the invasion of neighboring Iraq. Rouhani showed he had nerves of steel then, coupled with a stunning ability to charm his foes silly—he continues to possess the nerves of steel and the winning smile. Kerry and the west don’t stand a chance.
By the time the State Dept. is forced to admit, six months down the road, if not earlier, that they made a terrible mistake, Iran will have repaired the major crisis areas in its economy, and would remain as close to making a bomb, if not closer.
I’m sure The Jewish Press will be offering a large variety of op-ed and blog reports on the various details of the bad deal signed yesterday—but we already know, without having to read the minute details, that the game has moved into its next phase.
The only real question that remains unanswered for the time being is up to Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to answer: should Israel act now to effectively halt the progress of Iran’s deceptive nuclear program, or should it wait until the world knows the Iranians have been cheating all the way to the bank.
I honestly don’t want to be in this brave man’s shoes.