According to a New York Times/Siena College poll released on Monday, approximately 13% of voters in six key swing states who supported President Biden in the previous election but do not intend to vote for him again cited his foreign policy or the conflict in Gaza as the primary reason for their changed stance, but only 17% of these voters expressed sympathy for Israel over Hamas.
GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump is leading Biden in five out of these states: Pennsylvania (47-44); Arizona (49-42); Michigan (49-42); Georgia (49-39); and Nevada (50-38). Biden is ahead only in Wisconsin (47-45).
Despite significant events occurring since the previous New York Times/Siena College poll in November, such as a 25% increase in the stock market, Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan, and the Biden campaign’s substantial advertising expenditure across key battleground states, Monday’s poll results remain remarkably consistent with those from last November.
The only moving part in this constant state of voter reaction has been Biden’s shifting policy on Gaza, where the president has moved from all-out support immediately following the October 7, 2023, Hamas massacre, to an open confrontation with Israel over the conduct of the war. But what has been perceived as Biden’s cozying up to Muslim and leftist Democrats in states like Michigan, does not appear to move the needle.
Meanwhile, the president’s job approval remains very low. According to a Rasmussen poll on Monday, only 40% of the voters approve of the job Biden is doing, and 59% disapprove. A Financial Times/Ross poll on Sunday found 42% approve, 56% disapprove.
The Times/Siena poll findings highlight widespread public discontent with the current state of affairs in the country and significant skepticism regarding President Biden’s capability to improve the daily lives of Americans. A majority of voters in battleground states express anxiety and a desire for a change in leadership. Notably, nearly 70% of voters believe that substantial reforms are necessary within the nation’s political and economic systems. Only 13% believe that the president would create major changes in his second term in office.
The poll results indicate that the economy and the rising cost of living continue to be the paramount concerns for approximately one-quarter of voters, posing a significant threat to Biden’s reelection prospects. Alarmingly, more than half of the voters surveyed perceive the US’s current economic conditions as “poor.”
Historical data from Gallup polls spanning 19 presidential elections from 1936 to 2012 reveals a notable pattern: in 14 of those elections, the eventual winner had established a national lead by June. Additionally, an analysis of the last nine elected presidents dating back to Eisenhower indicates that every incumbent with an approval rating of 50% or higher won re-election, while every incumbent below 50% lost, except for Obama in 2012, whose approval rating was 49%.
President Biden’s current approval rating stands at 38%.
