A Monday night Direct Polls/Channel 14 survey, the first since Iran’s attack on Israel, reveals that if the elections were held today, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party would leapfrog to win 26 mandates compared to the 22 mandates it received in the previous poll two weeks ago. This number is still well below Likud’s current 32 mandates.
The survey was conducted by Shlomo Filber and Zuriel Sharon through Direct Falls Ltd. for Channel 14, on April 14, 2024, using a digital system combined with a panel, among 816 sampled adults (age 18+) who constitute a representative sample of the general population in Israel.
The statistical sampling error was quite high – 4.1%, with a ± 95% probability. So, a grain of salt is recommended.
The right-wing parties scored as follows:
Likud – 26
Shas – 10
Otzma Yehudit – 9
United Torah Judaism – 8
Religious Zionism – 5
Total: 58 mandates
The left and center parties:
National Union (Gantz) – 22 (currently 14)
Yesh Atid – 11 (17)
Israel Beiteinu – 11 (7)
Meretz – 4 (0)
Labor – 4 (4)
Total: 52 mandates
The Arab parties:
Ra’am – 6
Hadash – Ta’al – 4
Total: 10 mandates
Balad, which for a while has been crossing the 3.25% threshold in the polls is down below again, with 2.9%. And Gideon Sa’ar who left Gantz’s party to chart his own course with the New Hope party received only 1.5% Monday night.
In terms of overall numbers, Monday’s poll marks a return to the way things were for three elections, with the Jewish right beating the Jewish left 58 to 52, and the Arabs holding 10. However, the internal changes are very important, most notably the fact that Benny Gantz’s National Union party dominates the center-left map, and Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid continues to sink. Another important point: Avigdor Liberman’s Israel Beiteinu is soaring.
The last time Liberman won 11 seats in an election was in 2012 when he ran in a coalition block with Netanyahu’s Likud.
On the right, the big winner besides Netanyahu was Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit, which rose from its current 6 mandates to 9, likely at the expense of its partner, Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism which dropped from it current 7 mandates to 4. In a few recent polls, Religious Zionism was not able to cross the vote threshold.
The pollsters asked who was most suitable to the post of prime minister between Netanyahu and Gantz: 42% picked Netanyahu, 36% Gantz. But a whopping 22% said they liked neither.
Asked who was best for the job between Netanyahu and Lapid, the PM was preferred by 44% of respondents, Lapid only 28%. But 28% said they didn’t want either candidate.
According to the survey, 54% of respondents believe that Israel should attack Iran even if it is against the position of the US administration, compared to 42% who believe Israel should refrain from attacking if it is against the US position. Four percent of respondents had no opinion on the subject.
