With a record-breaking voter turnout of 83.5%, the highest since reunification in 1990, on Sunday, Germans headed to the polls for an early federal election. Now that vote counting is complete, preliminary results confirm a victory for the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, along with its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU).
Here are the five key things about Sunday’s federal elections in Germany:
- Preliminary results from Germany’s electoral authority show CDU/CSU leading with 28.6%, followed by the right-wing populist AfD at 20.8%, and Chancellor Scholz’s SPD at 16.4%.
- The AfD remains isolated, as other parties refuse to cooperate with it, making its participation in government unlikely.
- CDU/CSU candidate Friedrich Merz criticized Trump and Musk, emphasizing the need for European independence.
- The election was triggered by the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition, led by the center-left SPD.
- Friedrich Merz could become the next chancellor, with the possibility of forming a coalition with the SPD and/or the Greens.
WHO WON, WHO LOST?
The biggest winner of the election in terms of voter gains was the right-wing populist AfD, which nearly doubled its votes compared to the previous election.
The biggest losers were the Social Democrats (SPD), led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, which not only suffered its worst federal election result ever but also recorded its largest vote loss compared to previous elections.
The Free Democratic Party (FDP) also experienced significant losses, failing to meet the 5% threshold and consequently losing its representation in the Bundestag. The party’s withdrawal from the coalition had triggered the snap elections.
Can someone explain the German ?? election results to me?
Am I right to assume the status quo of Islamic hate and terror?? will just continue, or is there any hope for change? pic.twitter.com/iCSm2XQQTr
— Hashem (@HashemAllMighty) February 24, 2025
MERZ AND THE MIDDLE EAST
Friedrich Merz believes Germany should not take on a mediating role in the Israeli–PA conflict but still believes the two-state solution is the long-term goal for peaceful coexistence, with Palestinian recognition of Israel’s right to exist being essential.
In 2023, he commented that Germany’s relationship with Israel is different from that of the United States, emphasizing Germany’s obligation to support Israel “without ifs and buts.” Later, in October 2024, Merz successfully urged the German government to resume weapons deliveries to Israel, including tank spare parts. He also criticized the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
In December 2024, after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Merz called for stronger European ties with Turkey to help bring political stability to the region.
On the issue of refugees, in October 2023, Merz stated that Germany could not accept Arab refugees from Gaza, saying, “We have enough antisemitic young men in this country.” By December 2024, he called for deportations of illegal Syrian immigrants and a freeze on new refugee admissions, particularly advocating for regular deportations to Afghanistan and Syria as chancellor.
Merz has also voiced opposition to the fast-track naturalization process, which allows applicants to obtain German citizenship after three to five years. He wants to abolish this process and criticized that 80% of applicants for naturalization in 2024 wished to retain their original citizenship. He has suggested denaturalization in cases where individuals with multiple citizenships commit crimes, which would require a constitutional amendment.
KEY ASPECTS OF SEAT DISTRIBUTION
Germany’s Bundestag (parliament) follows a mixed-member proportional representation system, meaning that seats are distributed based on both direct votes (first vote) and party list votes (second vote).
When Germans head to the polls, they cast two votes: one for a candidate to represent their local constituency and another for a party’s state list.
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- The first vote elects a direct candidate in each electoral district, determining half of the Bundestag’s composition and ensuring regional representation.
- The second vote determines the overall strength of each party in the Bundestag and decides how many candidates from the party’s state list will secure seats.
The Bundestag consists of 630 seats, allocated proportionally based on vote share. To enter parliament, a party must either: Receive at least 5% of the national vote, or
win at least three direct mandates, which exempts the party from the 5% threshold rule.
WHAT TYPE OF COALITION GOVERNMENT COULD GERMANY FORM?
Although the CDU/CSU won the largest share of votes, they do not have an absolute majority. The party is set to secure 208 seats in the Bundestag. To form a majority, they will need to ally with another party to reach the 316-seat minimum. The CDU has ruled out a coalition with the AfD, stating it is the “firewall” against the far-right. This leaves two potential paths: a grand coalition with the SPD or a three-way coalition that includes the Greens, depending on the final seat distribution.
HOW DID VOTERS MOVE BETWEEN PARTIES?
Sunday’s election saw significant shifts in voter affiliations across the political spectrum. One of the most notable migrations was from the center-left SPD to the conservative CDU/CSU, which gained around 2 million votes from the Social Democrats. Meanwhile, the Left Party saw gains from both the SPD and the Greens, picking up 560,000 votes from the former and 700,000 votes from the latter.
Young voters aged 18 to 24 showed a tendency to lean towards the political extremes, with a higher share of their votes going to the far-right AfD and the Left Party. Meanwhile, the more traditional parties, SPD and CDU, received their lowest returns from this age group. The Greens, traditionally popular among younger voters, also saw one of their lowest percentages of support in this demographic. In contrast, voters aged 60 and over were more likely to vote for the SPD and CDU.
