With 77 days remaining until November 5, election day, and with a promising and superbly orchestrated convention in Chicago this week, Kamala Harris appears to have corrected in less than a month President Joe Biden’s chronic failure to catch up to the Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Recent polling averages show a tight race between Harris and Trump. Fivethirtyeight.com places Harris ahead by 2.7 percentage points, while Real Clear Politics gives her a slimmer 1.4-point lead. The Cook Political Report, using a more selective poll set, shows Harris with less than a 1-point advantage.
Enter Chauncey McLean, president of Future Forward, the super PAC that raised hundreds of millions of dollars for Harris. Speaking at an event hosted by the University of Chicago Institute of Politics on Monday, McLean, who usually prefers to remain behind the scenes, noted: “Our numbers are much less rosy than what you’re seeing in the public.”
At our @CookPolitical/@UChiPolitics panel this morning at Manny’s Deli, Chauncey McLean of Future Forward tells @davidaxelrod their modeling last month before he dropped out showed the probability of Biden winning was in single digits pic.twitter.com/ywbS1OhiUo
— Jessica Taylor (@JessicaTaylor) August 19, 2024
Super PACs are allowed to collect unlimited donations from corporations, unions, associations, and individuals, and they can spend as much as they want to support or oppose political candidates openly.
Indeed, Harris’s lead in most polls falls within the margin of error, and she lags behind in several battleground state surveys. Given these close margins, a more insightful approach may be to examine how the polling data illuminates potential paths to victory for each candidate, rather than focusing solely on the narrow gaps in national averages.
According to Reuters, Future Forward has launched an extensive polling initiative, developing and evaluating approximately 500 digital and TV advertisements for Biden and 200 for Harris. Since Harris secured her position as the presumptive Democratic nominee on July 22, the organization has engaged with around 375,000 Americans.
McLean is not being pessimistic, only realistic. He revealed that Future Forward still had $250 million in reserve, earmarked for a comprehensive ad campaign. This media blitz is set to span various platforms, from digital spaces to television, and will run from Labor Day (September 2) through Election Day.
Future Forward, the most powerful Democratic super PAC, launched a $50 million ad campaign in several states to introduce voters to Kamala Harris. McLean told the AP, “We’re ready to hit the ground running to make sure voters know that Kamala Harris will be a President that fights for them.”
According to McLean, after Biden exited the race, Harris gained significant momentum, primarily driven by young voters of color. This surge has made traditionally overlooked Sunbelt states like Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina more competitive for Democrats.
As of the past few days, in national polling conducted by Morning Consult, Harris is ahead of Trump by 4 points. ABC News/Wash Post (not rated): Harris ahead by 4. CBS News: Harris by 3. Among the top pollsters, only Rasmussen Reports shows Trump ahead, by a small margin.
WATCH THE SWING STATES
“She has multiple paths,” with seven swing states in play, McLean told the Chicago forum.
In the 2020 presidential election, several states flipped from supporting Donald Trump in 2016 to backing Joe Biden. These pivotal states, often considered swing states, were Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
The competitiveness of a state can also be gauged by the closeness of the race. In 2020, seven states were decided by a margin of three percentage points or less. This group included the five aforementioned states that flipped, plus North Carolina and Nevada, highlighting their potential as battlegrounds in future elections.
Harris has emerged as a competitive contender in all seven key battleground states. While she faces deficits in some areas, her recent progress has opened up multiple potential paths to victory. In Georgia, for instance, Harris has narrowed Trump’s lead to just 1 point in the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average, a significant improvement from Biden’s 4-point deficit when he ended his campaign.
Harris has made even more substantial gains in North Carolina and Nevada. In these states, she’s reduced Biden’s previous 5-point deficits to approximately 1.3 percentage points. Pennsylvania has seen a similar shift, with Harris eliminating Trump’s former 4.5-point advantage. In Michigan, she’s managed to turn the tables entirely, transforming a deficit into a lead, according to RCP averages.
Harris’s progress in North Carolina and Georgia is particularly noteworthy, given that these states carry the most electoral votes among battlegrounds after Pennsylvania. Securing a win in either of these states would significantly expand Harris’s options for reaching the required Electoral College majority.
Finally: here is the size of the Jewish community in each one of the swing states:
Pennsylvania – 434,165 (out of 12,961,683)
Georgia – 141,020 (out of 11,029,227)
Arizona – 123,725 (out of 7,431,344)
Michigan – 87,905 (out of 10,037,261)
Nevada – 79,800 (out of 3,194,176)
North Carolina – 48,935 (out of 10,835,491)
Wisconsin – 33,455 (out of 5,910,955)
Stay tuned.
