Multiple small groups of minorities across the US could serve as the tipping point in determining who will be the 47th president of the United States, adding suspense to an extremely close presidential race.
As the race enters its last hours and all are closely watching the neck-to-neck polls, one can turn to past voting patterns by minorities in an attempt to predict the outcome of the elections.
The swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are all home to sizable minority populations that could serve as a crucial determining factor in the outcome of the 2024 presidential elections.
Vincent Hutchings, professor of political science and Afroamerican and African studies, told the Michigan News that if history repeats previous elections’ behaviors, race, and ethnicity will be the critical determinant of how people vote this year, and many minority voters will choose Democrat while many whites will lean Republican.
Historically, about two-thirds of Jewish voters back the Democratic party. In 2020, about 7 in 10 Jewish voters supported President Joe Biden, according to AP VoteCast.
Can the Jewish vote determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election? Research by Brandeis University shows that given the margins in the two previous elections, it is certainly possible. Jewish voters tend to vote in large numbers, 80% or more, and while Jews represent only 2.4% of the overall US population, in several of the 2024 battleground states their numbers are large enough to swing the election.
Mathrubhumi.com reported that Arabs, Jewish, and Native American minorities will be decisive in the seven key swing states, and their concentrated presence in key swing states means their votes could be pivotal in determining the outcome of the 2024 elections.
In Michigan, the election could be decided by the US’ largest Arab American population, with over 300,000 residents of Middle Eastern and North African descent. The state also has some 200,000 registered Muslim voters.
In Pennsylvania, approximately 300,000 Jewish residents, making up about 3% of the electorate, could be the group to tip the state toward a Democratic blue. However, any shift could have enormous implications, as tens of thousands of votes decided the past two presidential elections.
In Georgia, Jews and Arabs represent about 1% of the electorate each.
Nevada is home to some 41,000 Jewish Americans, making up about 3% of the electorate.
Arab and Muslim Americans usually vote for the Democrats but have expressed dissatisfaction with the Biden Administration’s foreign policy, especially with its support for Israel in its war against the Hamas and Hezbollah terror organizations.
In Michigan, some Muslim groups have stated they will not vote for Vice President Kamala Harris due to her stance on supporting Israel, and some Muslim groups have publicly supported former President Donald Trump.
Jewish Americans also historically have primarily supported Democratic candidates, but recent antisemitism expressed by Democratic representatives and candidates and the ongoing war in Israel could cause this pattern to shift.
Rona Kaufman told the Associated Press that the signs are everywhere that more Jews feel abandoned by the Democratic Party and may vote for Trump.
“The family that is my generation and older generations, I don’t think anybody is voting for Harris, and we’ve never voted Republican, ever,” Kaufman, told AP. “My sister has a Trump sign outside her house, and that is a huge shift.”
While issues of religion, Israel, and foreign policy have received the spotlight, a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center in September shows that eight out of 10 voters said the economy will be one of the most important factors in their vote, and so Israel and its challenges may be less of an issue, even for minorities.
The latest polls show that the presidential race is still very close with only a fraction of a percent separating the two candidates in several battleground states.
The latest New York Times and Siena College poll shows that Trump is leading in Arizona (4%); Harris leads in Georgia (1%), North Carolina (2%), Nevada (3%) and Wisconsin (2%), and they are tied in Michigan.
Leonard Saxe, a Professor of Contemporary Jewish Studies at Brandeis University wrote that “there is no doubt that in the contested presidential election of 2024, the Jewish vote matters. If the past is prologue to the future, they are likely to support Kamala Harris. But prediction is difficult and the extent to which the voices of Jewish voters shape the outcome is a function of how close the race is in a small number of battleground states.”
