Last Friday, an NPR/PBS/Marist poll showed Former President Donald Trump trailing President Joe Biden by 48 to 50 points, although the same poll showed Trump with a 43 to 42 advantage over Biden in a field that included RFK Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein. It was an exceptional poll, against the background of Trump averaging a 51-to-49-point lead over Biden.
And then, on Saturday, Former President Trump was abruptly escorted from the stage during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, about 35 miles north of Pittsburgh, after gunshots rang out, causing the presumed GOP nominee a minor injury to his ear. Trump raised his fist to the crowd defiantly before the Secret Service agents whisked him away.
Trump posted on Truth Social that he was “shot with a bullet that pierced the upper part of my right ear.” According to The Washington Post, the FBI has declared the shooting, that killed a spectator in the crowd, an assassination attempt. The Secret Service reported that two other spectators were critically injured, and the gunman, 20, was dead after officers fired on him.
“The former president is fine and is being checked out at a local medical facility,” a campaign spokesperson said in a statement, though the full extent of any injuries remained unclear as of Saturday evening.
The incident immediately sent shockwaves through the political landscape.
Political analysts suggest that such incidents, while deeply troubling, can sometimes bolster a candidate’s popularity. Historically, assassination attempts on politicians can generate sympathy and bolster their base of support – if they survive.
As news of the assassination attempt spread, social media platforms were flooded with images of the bloodied Trump raising his fist to the crowd. Supporters quickly rallied around this image, praising what they saw as a display of resilience.
The long-term implications of Saturday’s events for Trump’s campaign and the broader political landscape remain to be seen. For now, here’s this tidbit:
A recent nationwide survey by University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape explored Americans’ views on political violence. Pape, who has been researching this topic since the events of January 6, 2021, found that 10% of respondents believed forceful action was warranted to prevent Donald Trump from assuming the presidency. Notably, one-third of those who supported this stance also reported owning firearms.
