A June 12 survey of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, the only reliable PA Arab polling service, revealed that more than 60% of Gazans report losing family members in the current war on Gaza, but two-thirds of the public continue to support the October 7 attack, and 80% believe it put the “Palestinian” issue at the center of global attention.
About half of Gazans expect Hamas to win the war and return to rule the Gaza Strip; only a quarter of Gazans expect Israel to win. Increased demand for the resignation of President Abbas is accompanied by a rise in Hamas’s and Marwan Barghouti’s popularity. Increased support for an armed struggle is accompanied by a drop of support for the two-state solution; and more than 60% support the dissolution of the Palestinian Authority.
The sample size of this poll was 1570 adults, of whom 760 were interviewed face-to-face in the PA (in 76 residential locations) and 750 in the Gaza Strip (in 75 locations). Due to the uncertainty about the exact population size and distribution at that moment in the Gaza Strip, the survey authors almost doubled the sample size in that area to reduce the margin of error. The total sample was reweighted to reflect the actual relative size of the population in the two enclaves, Gaza and the PA. Thus, the sample used is representative of the entire population of the two regions. The margin of error stands at +/-3%.
OCTOBER 7 AND THE WAR IN GAZA:
For the third time since October 7, the survey’s authors asked the respondents what they thought of Hamas’s decision to launch the October 7 attack. Two-thirds, compared to 71% in March 2024 and 72% in December 2023, say it was correct. The drop in supporting the decision came from the Gaza Strip. Current support in that area stands at 57%, compared to 71% three months ago, and 57% six months ago.
Despite a four-percentage point drop in positively viewing the October 7 attack decision, the belief that the war on Gaza since that attack has “revived international attention to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and that it could lead to increased recognition of Palestinian statehood” rose by six percentage points to 82% while only 18% said that it did not do so.
HUMANITARIAN CONDITIONS IN THE GAZA STRIP:
A majority of 63% (compared to 64% three months ago) blames Israel for the suffering of Gazans in the current war while 22% (compared to 20% three months ago) place the blame on the US; only 8% (compared to 7% three months ago) place the blame on Hamas, and only 4% (compared to 6% three months ago) blame the PA. It is worth noting that the percentage of Gazans who place the blame on Hamas stands today at 10% compared to 9% three months ago.
64% of Gazans say they have enough food for a day or two; 36% say they don’t have enough food for a day or two. These results show a significant improvement compared to the results obtained three months ago when only 44% said they had enough food for a day or two.
When they need food or water, only 26% of Gazans say they can reach a place where they can get help. 72% say they can, but with great difficulty or risk, and 2% say they cannot. These results reflect a slight improvement compared to the situation three months ago.
61% of all Gazans say a member of their family has been killed during the current war. In a separate question, 65% say a member of their family has been injured. When combining the two questions, the findings show that 78% say a member of their family has been either killed or injured; only 22% of Gazans say none of their family members have been killed or injured. Three months ago, 60% of Gazans said that one or more members of their family had been killed in the war and 78% were killed or injured during the current war.
Asked what they thought of the role of the temporary pier established by the US military on the coast of northern Gaza in delivering humanitarian aid, a majority of 78% said that this initiative does not contribute to alleviating the suffering of the population while 22% said it does. A larger percentage of Gazans, almost twice as much as in the West Bank, say that the American pier contributes to alleviating the suffering of the residents, 30% and 16% respectively.
WAR CRIMES AND ATROCITIES:
Almost all PA Arabs (97%) think Israel has committed war crimes during the current war. By contrast, only 9% (compared to 5% three months ago) think Hamas also committed such crimes; 2% think Israel has not committed such crimes and 88% think Hamas did not commit war crimes during the current war.
90%, compared to 80% three months ago, say they did not see videos showing acts committed by Hamas against Israeli civilians, such as the killing of women and children in their homes; only 9% (6% in the PA and 13% in the Gaza Strip) saw these videos.
When asked if Hamas did commit the atrocities that are seen in these videos, the overwhelming majority (91%) said no, it did not, and only 7% said it did. The belief that Hamas fighters have committed atrocities against civilians is higher among those who did watch videos showing such atrocities (44%) compared to those who did not (3%).
WHO WILL WIN THE WAR:
68% support Hamas’s decision, announced in early May to accept the ceasefire proposal submitted by Egypt, while 26% (33% in the Gaza Strip and 22% in the PA) oppose it. A majority of 58% expected Hamas and Israel to reach a ceasefire in the next few days while 39% did not expect it.
Asked who will emerge victorious in this war, a majority of 67% expects Hamas to win, compared to 64% three months ago and 70% six months ago. It is worth noting that fewer Gazans today, only 48%, expect Hamas to win compared to the results three and six months ago, when the percentages stood at 56% and 50%, respectively. By contrast, a larger percentage of PA respondents, 79%, expect Hamas to win compared to the previous poll, at 69%. It’s also worth noting that while almost no one in the PA expects Israel to win the current war, a quarter of Gazans expect Israel to win.
“THE DAY AFTER,” WHO WILL RULE GAZA AFTER THE WAR?
Respondents were asked to speculate about the party that will be in control of the Gaza Strip in the day after the end of the current war. A majority of 56% think it will be Hamas. However, unlike previous polls, there are significant differences between PA and Gaza respondents, with only 46% of Gazans saying Hamas will control that area, compared to a higher 62% in the PA, up from 59% in both areas three months ago.
The current total represents a decrease of 3 percentage points compared to the results obtained three months ago. Only 4% believe that the Israeli army will be in control of the Gaza Strip. 11% believe that a new PA with an elected president, parliament, and government will be in control, 6% believe the current PA headed by Abbas will be in control, 7% believe the current PA but without Abbas will be in control, 2% choose one or more Arab states, and 2% choose the UN.
When asked who the public would prefer to control the Gaza Strip after the war, 61% (71% in the PA and 46% in the Gaza Strip) said it was Hamas, 16% chose a new Palestinian Authority with an elected president, parliament and government, 6% chose the current PA without Abbas, 6% also chose the return of the PA but under Abbas’ control, 2% chose the UN, 1% selected one or more Arab states, and 1% selected the Israeli army.
Three months ago, 59% (64% in the PA and 52% in the Gaza Strip) preferred to see Hamas return to control the Gaza Strip after the war.
RELATIONS WITH ISRAEL AND THE PEACE PROCESS
32% support and 65% oppose the idea of a two-state solution. Three months ago, support for this solution stood at 45%, and six months ago support stood at 34%. In the current poll, support for this solution came from the Gaza Strip, a 30-point increase while dropping only two points in the PA.
Support for the two-state solution is usually linked to public assessment of the feasibility of such a solution and the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state. Today, 61% (compared to 63% three months ago) believe the two-state solution is no longer practical due to settlement expansion, but 34% (compared to 37% three months ago) believe it is still practical. 68% believe that the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel in the next five years are slim or nonextant, and 31% believe the chances are medium or high.
When asked about their support and opposition to specific policy measures to break the stalemate: 66% supported joining more international organizations; 49% supported resorting to unarmed popular resistance; 63% supported a return to confrontations and an armed intifada; 62% supported dissolving the PA; and 22% supported abandoning the two-state solution and demanding one state for Palestinians and Israelis.
Three months ago, 55% supported a return to confrontations and armed intifada; 45% supported resort to unarmed popular resistance; 58% supported the dissolution of the PA; and 24% supported abandoning the two-state solution in favor of one state.
