After nine months of war, the Hamas leadership is fragmenting as internal conflicts and airstrikes on key figures take a toll.
Intense pressure from the Israeli military compounded by Qatar’s political pressure and American economic pressure have triggered a series of developments indicating significant shifts in the structure and behavior of Hamas’s military leadership.
With the majority of Hamas’s military council killed in airstrikes, the terror group has begun appointing new leaders and making succession plans to replace other figures viewed as at risk. But this comes against the backdrop of long-standing rifts between Hamas’s Iranian and Qatari camps.
If the death of Mohammed Deif is confirmed — he was targeted in an airstrike on Saturday — Mohammed Sinwar brother of Yahya Sinwar, is poised to become leader of Hamas’s military forces.
Furthermore, Arab sources report that Ruhi Mushtaha, a close associate of Yahya Sinwar from their time in Israeli prison, is likely to succeed Sinwar as Hamas’s Gaza strongman.
Senior commanders eliminated so far include Marwan Issa (Hamas’s No. 3 man) and Salah Arouri (key strategist who directed terror operations in Judea and Samaria), Ahmed Ehandor (commander of the Northern Division), Iman Nofal (commander of Central Gaza Brigade) among others, and most recently, Rafa’a Salameh (commander of the Khan Yunis Brigade). The fate of Raed Saad (head of the operations division in Gaza) remains unknown after he was targeted in an airstrike in June.
‘A Divided Kingdom’
Internal divisions are also evident as Hamas redefines its relationship with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and looks for a new home.
Leaders such as Ismail Haniyeh have met with Fatah and PLO representatives, discussing the possibility of Hamas joining a unified leadership or the PLO. These talks have sparked significant internal discord, particularly from Sinwar, who opposes such negotiations. Despite his opposition, senior officials like Khaled Mashal and Musa Abu Marzouk continue to advocate for Hamas’ integration into broader Palestinian politics.
Hamas’ deputy leader and politburo member Khalil al-Hayah, hinted at a potential disarmament and transition to a political party, should a Palestinian state be established.
Sinwar demonstrated his disregard for the Hamas leadership in Qatar when Doha had to send a special envoy to communicate with him during the first truce for the release of Israeli hostages. Haniyeh and other top leaders based in Qatar have repeatedly been unable to influence Sinwar’s decisions.
Sinwar has also prohibited the Hamas leadership abroad from discussing the future of Gaza and expressed strong disapproval of Haniyeh’s meetings with representatives of exiled Palestinian figure Mohammed Dahlan, who may be interested in returning to Gaza to play a key role in governing the Strip.
In another strategic move, Hamas is attempting to open a political office in Damascus, a process initiated by the late Saleh Arouri. This initiative could heighten internal conflicts, as this will likely strain Hamas’s relations with both the Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar.
The significant split within Hamas, described by Arab commentators as the “divided kingdom” or the “broken emirate,” began years ago and persists. This internal conflict continued even as Hamas aligned with Iran and lost the support of the moderate Sunni Arab world. Currently, Hamas operates under two primary leaderships: the military leadership in Gaza and the political leadership abroad.
At least 1,200 people were killed, and 252 Israelis and foreigners were taken hostage in Hamas’s attacks on Israeli communities near the Gaza border on October 7. Of the 116 remaining hostages, more than 30 are believed dead.
