After eight months of war, Gaza no longer has a governing continuum, and parts of it have become islands where various degrees of both chaos and governance exist. However, instead of strengthening itself, Hamas is adapting its capabilities to the immediate goal of survival.
“It’s like a person who got necrosis in some of his body parts as a result of frostbite and he gives them up to save his body,” an Israeli security official told The Press Service of Israel.
In northern Gaza, where the disintegration of Hamas’s governance is most pronounced, the terror group is transitioning from an organized military presence to guerrilla tactics. Northern Gaza is theoretically under the command of Ezz a Din Haddad but is unstable as Haddad remains on the run.
In central Gaza, Hamas remains in survival mode. Central Gaza’s commander, Ayman Nofal, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in October during the war’s early days.
In southern Gaza — especially Rafah — Hamas still showcases significant civil governance capabilities. This disparity is due to the ongoing operations of the Rafah Brigade, which maintains three regular Hamas battalions. The fate of Rafah’s commander, Muhammad Shabana, is uncertain following an assassination attempt.
The Israeli military’s seizure of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt on May 7 was a particular blow to Hamas.
“At this crossing, Hamas established interrogation rooms, controlled the movement of people leaving for Egypt and the distribution of aid coming from Egypt,” an Arab source explained to TPS-IL. “However, with the beginning of the ground operation at the Rafah crossing, Hamas closed this center and apparently moved it to other places.”
The prolonged conflict has led to the destruction of approximately 200 Hamas-run civilian institutions, including police and internal security establishments critical to the terror group’s control. However, some local government functions continue, particularly in areas untouched by Israeli ground operations. Notably, the Gaza City municipality, despite extensive damage, is still operational, even managing to issue beach safety guidelines.
An Israeli security source told TPS-IL that one factor particularly weakening Hamas in the northern part of the Strip is the Netzarim Corridor, a passage taken over by the Israel Defense Forces. The corridor cuts off northern and southern Gaza from each other, and Hamas demands the army dismantle it as part of negotiations for the return of hostages.
“It turns out that the Netzarim Corridor has become a tourniquet right around the neck of Hamas in Gaza,” an Israeli security official told TPS-IL.
“Besides the movement of the population, it is also possible to notice the movement of the terrorist elements that cling to the new population concentrations in an effort to renew civilian and military infrastructures in them,” he added.
As chaos increases, violence escalates, particularly in Deir al-Balah, where Hamas operatives shot the local commander of the Fatah-aligned Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade over control of aid distribution.
“The violent conflict developed as a result of struggles to control the aid. It’s clear in the Strip that whoever controls it actually controls the entire population,” a Gazan told TPS-IL.
In some areas, emergency committees have replaced the central government, operating under Hamas or the Ministry of Interior’s directives. For instance, in the Jabaliya refugee camp, these committees have advised residents against returning home due to ongoing conflict. Similar committees manage education, monitor prices, and enforce policing, though their presence in northern Gaza is waning post-ground operations.
Conversely, these committees maintain significant influence in central regions, occasionally enforcing harsh measures. Recently, a committee punished a journalist by dismantling her family’s tent in Nusseirat after she criticized Hamas.
Central Gaza, which experienced less intense ground maneuvers, is actively working on infrastructure repairs, including water, sewage, and electricity systems. The municipality of Khan Yunis is constructing encampments and distributing tents to tens of thousands of returning residents, even those from Rafah, where the ground conflict first erupted.
Israeli officials note the movement of terrorist elements attempting to integrate into new population centers to renew civilian and military infrastructures.
Hamas has also strategically involved local crime families, granting them control over aid in exchange for loyalty, effectively turning them into local militias. This uneasy alliance underscores the volatile dynamics within Gaza, where armed representatives of Hamas have threatened clans and allegedly murdered clan leaders opposing them.
At least 1,200 people were killed, and 252 Israelis and foreigners were taken hostage in Hamas’s attacks on Israeli communities near the Gaza border on October 7. Of the 124 remaining hostages, 39 are believed dead.
