IDF Intelligence estimates that next year Iran will continue to try to heat up, arm, and finance terrorism against Israel, but will not break the rules on the nuclear issue; in Gaza and the PA, terrorist activities will increase; Hezbollah is not interested in war; instability will worsen the world over; and the war in Ukraine has convinced smaller countries that they must attain atomic weapons. According to Israel Hayom, this is the gist of the IDF Intelligence report which was compiled in recent weeks and will soon be presented to the political echelon.
IDF Intelligence also points to the demographic change within the United States as an issue that requires Israel’s attention, to preserve its special relations with the US. Although these demographic changes do not yet impact relations between Israel and the US––certainly not in security and intelligence cooperation, which is thriving more than ever before––but they require constant engagement, so that Israel is not strategically harmed by them.
It should be pointed out in this context that the election of Donald Trump in 2016 as the Republican candidate was an anomaly. Both Presidents Trump and GW Bush were elected without an electoral majority, and Trump won because he skillfully rode the general resentment against the Democratic establishment. Back in 2012, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney warned (in a leaked recording) that demographic changes may make it impossible for a white Republican to win the presidency. Back in 2008, John McCain won 55% of the non-Hispanic white vote, only 43% of which went to Barack Obama, and that was 2 points higher than a Democrat had received in previous recent elections.
Israel will have to find creative, broad, and effective ways to reach out to the non-white Democratic voters who are naturally inclined to buy the “Palestinian narrative” and support a Democratic White House that’s more hostile to Israel.
Global trends impact the Middle East in perilous ways, according to the Intelligence report. Egypt and Jordan are suffering from an unprecedented economic and nutritional crisis, the result of the war in Ukraine and the spike in grain prices that followed. Egypt has already received $3 billion in aid from Qatar in 2022 and is expected to ask Qatar for more. Ciro also relies on grain purchased for it by Saudi Arabia.
IDF Intelligence believes that this crisis, in addition to Lebanon’s becoming a failed state, may have far-reaching implications for the region, and Israel must help Egypt and Jordan, most notably with water desalination and solar energy projects to help solve the acute water and energy crisis in both Arab countries and stabilize of these regimes.
The report identifies Iran’s role as playing all over the region, in addition to its nuclear efforts. Iran has increased its involvement in encouraging terrorist acts in Judea and Samaria, aimed at heating the area. This requires the Shin Bet to increase its involvement in the Iranian issue, including establishing new joint work teams with Mossad and Military Intelligence.
In Gaza, Iran is the sole funder of the Islamic Jihad and the main funder of Hamas. In the northern arena, Iran understands that it has failed in its efforts to establish itself in Syria, but will continue to work to arm Hezbollah with precision weapons, in addition to cruise missiles and kamikaze UAVs it is selling Russia for the war in Ukraine.
The report estimates in 2023, Hezbollah will continue to be preoccupied mainly with internal Lebanese issues, and avoid war with Israel. However, an escalation may arise between Hezbollah and Israel over local issues, as was the case when Hassan Nasrallah prepared for an escalation two months ago, should Israel not concede maritime territory to Lebanon.
IDF Intelligence no longer views Gaza and the PA as separate arenas. Its major concern is what would happen the day after Chairman Mahmoud Abbas dies (he just turned 87). The report notes that Hamas in Gaza is a major player in this regard, having played a dominant role in Judea and Samaria since Operation Guardian of the Walls. Hamas wants to take over the PA and its leader, Yahya Sinwar, has recently been making an effort to create for himself an image of a statesman, not just a fighter.
The report expects the PA to experience violent upheavals after the passing of the chairman, with clashes involving several warring factions. Israel must be able to influence the rise of a more moderate PA chairman and to block the violence from spreading into Jewish communities on either side of the green line.
